Month: March 2023

Russia said Wednesday it would only agree to extend the Black Sea grain deal, which allows grain to be safely exported from Ukrainian ports, if the interests of its own agricultural producers are considered.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year, expires on March 18 and cannot be extended unless all parties agree. Russia has already signaled it is unhappy with aspects of the deal.

Russia’s agricultural exports have not been explicitly targeted by Western sanctions, but Moscow says restrictions on its payments, logistics and insurance industries are a “barrier” to it being able to export its own grains and fertilizers.

Moscow’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had discussed the prospects for renewing the deal at a meeting with his Turkish counterpart on the sidelines of the G-20 in New Delhi.

“[The] Russian side stressed that continuing the package agreement on grain is possible only if the interests of Russian agricultural and fertilizer producers in terms of unhindered access to world markets are taken into account,” the ministry said in a statement.
…

French President Emmanuel Macron begins a four-nation tour of Africa today amid rising anti-French sentiment that saw French troops recently leave Mali and Burkina Faso. Macron will visit Gabon, Angola, the Republic of Congo, and the Democratic Republic of Congo amid a growing regional opposition to French involvement and support for closer ties with Russia.

Days before his departure, Macron announced France would be taking on a more deferential relationship with Africa that would require France to assume a “profound humility” in its dealings with the continent. As part of the new strategy, French military bases in Africa will transform into military academies while others will eventually be co-run with African partners.

Two of the countries Macron plans to visit — Gabon and the Republic of Congo — are former French colonies.

“For a long time France has been the object of criticism and rejection because its position has always been one of dominance,” said Mahamoudou Savadogo, a security expert with Granada Consulting in Burkina Faso. “But there is a new opportunity to be had. There are youth who have never known colonization and there’s a new paradigm that France must consider in order to improve their relationship with other states.”

France’s military withdrawal from Africa will allow its former colonies to finally assume full statehood, he added.

But as France has distanced itself from the continent, other parties have moved in. Private Russian military group Wagner has established a presence in Mali and the Central African Republic, where it has been accused of atrocities such as torture, rape and executions.

Aguibou Bouare is president of the National Human Rights Commission of Mali. He acknowledged the accusations against the Wagner Group but said it was up to the state to carry out an independent investigation to evaluate the allegations.

“For me, a country does not have friends — it has interests,” he said. “And any partner that can help us fight terrorism is encouraged. I’m not concerned about who that partner is.”

Deaths linked to Islamist militants on the continent skyrocketed by nearly 50 percent in the last year to more than 19,000 people, much of it in the western Sahel region, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

“Wagner’s arrival in Francophone Africa is the result of France’s failed Africa policies,” said Ahmat Yacoub Dabio, president of the Center for Development and Prevention of Extremism in Chad.

“France has always supported African dictatorships. It has always turned a blind eye to human rights violations. And France hasn’t made the effort to radically change its policies.”

France would do better to support Africa via health, infrastructure and education projects, Dabio added.

In his speech, Macron said he did not accept responsibility for the worsening security crisis in Mali and that he would not let France become a scapegoat.
…

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed doubt Wednesday about how serious Russia and China are about achieving peace in Ukraine, citing a lack of substantive steps by either to back up statements showing support for a peace effort.

Speaking during a visit to Uzbekistan, Blinken told reporters that if Russia were genuinely prepared to engage in meaningful diplomacy to end its aggression, then the United States would be quick to engage in that effort. But he said Russia’s actions, including President Vladimir Putin’s demands that Ukraine recognize Russia’s control over parts of Ukrainian territory, show Russia is not interested in that path.

“The real question is whether Russia will get to a point where it is genuinely prepared to end its aggression and do so in a way that is consistent with the United Nations charter and its very principles.”

“No one wants peace more urgently than the people of Ukraine.  They are the victims every single day of Russia’s aggression,” Blinken said.  “We all know the simple truth that the war could end tomorrow, it could end today, if President Putin so decided.  He started it, he could stop it.”

Blinken said a peace proposal put forward by China does contain some positive elements, including some found in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s own peace plan.

But Blinken said if China were serious about its call for the sovereignty of all nations to be upheld, then it would have spent the past year working in support of Ukraine’s full sovereignty in the face of Russia’s invasion.  

He said China has done the opposite, including advancing Russian propaganda about the war, blocking for Russia at international organizations and contemplating sending lethal military assistance for Russian forces to use in Ukraine.

Bakhmut fighting

Ukrainian officials described fighting Tuesday around the eastern city of Bakhmut as intense, although little territory has changed hands between Moscow’s and Kyiv’s forces.

“The most difficult situation is still Bakhmut and the battles that are important for the defense of the city,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Tuesday. “Russia does not count people at all, sending them to constantly storm our positions. The intensity of fighting is only increasing.”

Zelenskyy said the Ukrainian commander in charge of defending Bakhmut, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported 800 Russian troops have been killed in the area since Thursday.

Earlier Tuesday, Syrskyi said on social media, “Despite taking significant losses, the enemy has dispatched its best-trained Wagner assault units to try to break through the defenses of our troops and surround the city.”

He was referring to the Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary unit fighting alongside Russian troops.

Russia has been intensifying its attacks on several areas in eastern Ukraine, including Bakhmut, the ruined city where 75,000 people once lived.

Fighting for months has focused on towns and villages around Bakhmut, with Moscow attempting to surround the city to cut off Ukrainian supply routes, although some fighting has occurred within the city itself.

After failing a year ago to quickly take Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, in the earliest days of the war, Russia has concentrated its fight in the eastern Donbas region. Both sides have sustained heavy casualties in the warfare.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based research organization, said in a new report Tuesday that 60,000 to 70,000 Russian troops have been killed in the last year, more combat deaths than Moscow sustained in all the conflicts it has fought since World War II combined, including in Chechnya and Afghanistan.

Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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Iran Wednesday ordered two German diplomats to leave the country in response to a similar move by Germany last week.

The German expulsion of two Iranian diplomats came in protest of Iran’s sentencing German national Jamshid Sharmahd to death.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said Wednesday that Germany was interfering in Iran’s “internal and judicial affairs.”

Iran accused Sharmahd of leading the armed wing of a pro-monarchist group, which his family denied.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after the sentencing last week that Sharmahd was arrested under “highly questionable circumstances” and that he “never had even the semblance of a fair trial.”

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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President Tayyip Erdogan indicated on Wednesday that elections will be held on May 14, sticking to his previous plan for the vote with a date just over three months after a devastating earthquake killed more than 45,000 people in Turkey. 

“This nation will do what is necessary on May 14, God willing,” Erdogan said in a speech to lawmakers from his ruling AK Party in parliament. 

There had been conflicting signals over the likely timing of the presidential and parliamentary elections since last month’s earthquake, with some suggesting they could be postponed until later in the year or could be held as scheduled on June 18. 

Before the disaster, Erdogan’s popularity had been eroded by the soaring cost of living and a slump in the lira. He has since faced a wave of criticism over his government’s response to the deadliest quake in the nation’s modern history. 

Erdogan, aiming to extend his rule into a third decade, previously said he was bringing the votes forward to May to avoid holidays in June. Polls suggest they would present his biggest electoral challenge yet. 

Doubts had been expressed about the ability of election authorities to prepare and make logistical arrangements for the voting of those affected in the quake zone, home to some 14 million people. 
…

A head-on collision between a passenger train and a freight train in northern Greece Tuesday left at least 32 people dead and 85 injured. 

The two trains collided near the city of Tempe, about 380 kilometers north of the Greek capital of Athens.  The passenger train was headed north from Athens to the city of Thessaloniki, while the freight train was traveling south from Thessaloniki to the city of Larissa. At least three passenger cars derailed and burst into flames.  

Authorities say about 250 passengers who survived the crash unarmed or with minor injuries were transported by bus to Thessaloniki.  The passenger train was carrying 350 people.  

At least 150 firefighters with 17 vehicles and 40 ambulances have been deployed to the scene of the disaster in a search for more passengers who could still be trapped in the wreckage. At least 25 people were transported to nearby hospitals with serious injuries.   

Fire Service spokesman Vassilis Varthakogiannis told state television that the evacuation efforts are taking place ‘in very difficult conditions given the severity of the collision of the two trains.” 
…

Kosovo and Serbia have agreed to back a proposed European Union plan for normalization of relations, but, in a sign of persisting differences about its implementation, stopped short of signing it.

The plan — revealed for the first time publicly Monday evening in Brussels — includes steps to bring the parties closer and resolve some issues such as mutual recognition of respective documents and national symbols, including passports, diplomas, license plates, and customs stamps. It also stipulates that Serbia “will not object to Kosovo’s membership in any international organization.”

The document, however, does not call for Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo’s statehood.

The talks between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti were held under the auspices of the European Union. The bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, told reporters after the meeting that “progress was made.”

“At the same time, more work is needed to ensure that what was accepted today by the parties will be implemented,” he said.

Whether the agreement of parties to the document is a significant achievement is not immediately clear, but some analysts are taking an optimistic view.

“I think one can confidently say that despite the absence of a signature, the glass is more than half full. I would say it’s three-quarters full,” Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations told VOA. “I do feel that the parties have passed through some kind of important political inflection point. They are heading toward the finish line.”

“The finish line,” according to Kupchan, being Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo.

“I think it’s safe to say that that formal recognition is the endpoint of this process,” Kupchan said, adding that the document “is really spelling out how the first phase is going to be conducted and how it will unfold.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to Kosovo Greg Delawie told VOA the simple fact of an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is good news.

“Any meeting in which the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia are treated as equals is a positive step.”

‘Devil in the details’

But there are questions about how far the proposal goes.

The thorny issue of the creation of an Association of Majority Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo is not explicitly mentioned in the plan and the approach to it by Kosovo and Serbia could determine the speed of the normalization process.

Such an association, first proposed in 2013, would allow communities in Kosovo where ethnic Serbs are in the majority to collectively manage such affairs as economic development, education, health, urban and rural planning in their areas. Serbia sees it as an important protection for the Kosovo Serbs but the Kosovo government worries that it would unduly infringe on the prerogatives of a multiethnic independent country.

“The devil is in the details, and we don’t know the details,” said Kupchan. “We do know that the Association is part of the deal and it’s a piece of the puzzle that was put into place quite some time ago.”

On Tuesday, U.S. envoy for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar said Washington supports the agreements laid out in Brussels.

“But while it was an important step, the hard work agreeing to an implementation annex still remains and we still want to see two parties move forward on that on an expedited basis,” said Escobar, referring to the next step of negotiations.

Borrell on Monday called that step “an integral part” of completing the deal.

There, say some experts, lies the real issue.

“We still have a long way to go before we have an agreement,” said David Kanin, adjunct professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University and a former CIA senior analyst, adding that Monday’s agreement to the proposed plan “is simply an agreement to try to reach an agreement.”

“That implementation annex—that’s the agreement,” he said.

There were signs that the parties may have chosen to ascribe more weight to those aspects of the deal that are most in line with their positions. For Kosovo’s Prime Minister Kurti, who said he was ready to sign the document, that seems to be the EU plan itself.

But Serbian President Vucic chose to focus on the implementation aspect. He said he insisted, during the meeting, on the creation of the Association of Serb Municipalities, which was called for in previous agreements. According to the European plan, both Parties confirm their obligation to implement all past agreements. 

“I don’t think Kurti was ready to accept that,” said Vucic. “[Whether] that will be possible in the future, [we] will see.”

Kanin of Johns Hopkins says these statements indicate that basic differences remain.

“That’s the kind of thing they’ve been saying before about each other in terms of the Serbs insisting on the Association of Serb Municipalities and Kurti saying, ‘No, that’s not the priority,’” Kanin told VOA. “They have different priorities and different positions. That hasn’t changed.”

The EU and the U.S. have been pressing for the creation of the Association, but so far Kosovo has been reluctant, arguing that the establishment of a mono-ethnic community would violate its constitution, destabilizing the state and threatening its functionality.

“It will need to be implemented in a manner consistent with Kosovo’s constitution and with the understanding that it is intended to benefit Kosovo’s Serbs, not the Serbian government,” former Ambassador Delawie said.

As a result, said Kupchan, there needs to be more clarity about “how to reconcile some level of autonomy for the Serbian community — the Serbian minority in Kosovo — with the powers of Kosovo’s own government.”

U.S. envoy Escobar made it clear that, from the U.S. perspective, the creation of the Association of Serb Municipalities is legally binding, and that implementation should begin immediately.

Borrell says the diplomacy will continue, and he is aiming for another round of talks in March.

Daniel Serwer of Johns Hopkins University told VOA that although Kurti does not like the idea of implementing the Association of Serb Municipalities, he has suggested he would implement it under a different name.

“Provided Serbia recognizes Kosovo and establishes full diplomatic relations, I think he [Kurti] is correct in believing that implementation of the Association before recognition is a threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said.

Escobar said this particular agreement is about normalization, not recognition. And while the U.S. supports this agreement, it ultimately believes that all the countries of the region should “recognize each other and have … full and positive relations between each other.”

Russia’s shadow

The renewed diplomatic push to broker a deal between the former foes comes against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

“I am very hopeful and our expectations are very high for this agreement,” Escobar said on Tuesday. “I think what’s new is not only the seriousness of both governments, but the seriousness of our European partners to make this happen in the shadow of one of the biggest crises Europe has seen since the Second World War.”

Russia has stood by Serbia’s non-recognition of Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, and the West wants to steer Serbia — the only country aspiring for EU membership that has not imposed sanctions on Moscow — into its sphere of influence.

Kupchan said “Russia looms large in what is transpiring,” and, with its aggression in Ukraine, has lost a foothold in the Balkans, making siding with Russia or affiliating with Russia less appealing for Serbia.

“[Russia’s invasion of Ukraine] has expedited U.S. and EU engagement in the region to remove whatever footholds Russia has left,” said Kupchan. “The more that can be done to resolve outstanding cleavages in the Balkans, the more difficult it will be for Russia to exercise influence.”

Keida Kostreci and Milan Nesic reported from Washington, Besim Abazi reported from Brussels.
…

A passenger train and an oncoming freight train collided in a fiery wreck in northern Greece early Wednesday, killing 26 people and injuring at least 85, Fire Service officials said. 

Multiple cars derailed and at least three burst into flame after the collision near Tempe, some 380 kilometers north of Athens. Hospital officials in the nearby city of Larissa said at least 25 people had serious injuries. 

“The evacuation process is ongoing and is being carried out under very difficult conditions due to the severity of the collision between the two trains,” Fire Service spokesman Vassilis Varthakoyiannis said. 

Hospital units used to treat burn victims had been alerted in the area, he said, and dozens of ambulances were involved in the rescue effort. 

Rescuers wearing head lamps worked in thick smoke, pulling pieces of mangled metal from the rail cars to search for trapped people. 

Passengers who received minor injuries or were unharmed were transported by bus to Thessaloniki, 130 kilometers north of the incident. Police took their names as they arrived in an effort to track anyone who may be missing. 

A teenage survivor who did not give his name told Greek reporters as he got off one of the buses that just before the crash, he felt a strong braking and saw sparks and then there was a sudden stop. 

“Our carriage didn’t derail, but the ones in front did and were smashed,” he said, visibly shaken. 

He added that the first car caught fire and that he used a bag to break the window of his car, the fourth, and escape. 

In comments to state television, Costas Agorastos, the regional governor of the Thessaly area, described the collision as “very powerful” and said it was “a terrible night.” 

“The front section of the train was smashed. … We’re getting cranes to come in and special lifting equipment to clear the debris and lift the rail cars. There’s debris flung all around the crash site.” 

Officials said the army had been contacted to assist. 

Rail operator Hellenic Train said the northbound passenger train from Athens to Thessaloniki had about 350 passengers on board when the collision occurred. 
…

With Russia’s war in Ukraine now in its second year, there is renewed attention on the eastern salt-mining city of Bakhmut, the focus of a sustained Russian offensive in recent months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the situation in Bakhmut is becoming more and more “complicated.” Bakhmut is just one of many areas in Russia’s sights as the war continues.

Along with the billions of dollars in military assistance that Western nations have given, Ukraine seeks fighter jets, but so far, the West has refused that request. The NATO military alliance has also voiced concern that Ukraine is using ammunition faster than it can be replenished.

Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, far short of the quick, countrywide takeover that had been predicted when Russia invaded its neighbor on February 24, 2022.

VOA Eastern Europe bureau chief Myroslava Gongadze recently conducted a wide-ranging interview with Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the main intelligence directorate at the Ukrainian defense ministry in Kyiv. Budanov spoke of what to expect in the coming months as Russia intensifies its military campaign in Ukraine. The interview has been edited for clarity.

VOA: You are the only person, in fact, as people close to the processes say, who at the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, even before the start of a full-scale invasion, emphasized the need to be ready for a major Russian offensive. Have you been heard then?

Kyrylo Budanov, military intelligence chief, Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: Since today is already the 25th [of February 2023] and Russia has not been able to fulfill any of its strategic tasks, we can see that, at least partly, I was heard. At that time, let’s say different people had different opinions; however, as the period of February 2022 approached … certain steps were taken and it was because of this that Russia was unable to implement its plan on the 24th.”

VOA: You said, “Because of it.” Because of what?

Budanov: As an example, I can give you that already on the 23rd [of February 2022], our aviation was dispersed. So, when the missile attacks began on the 24th [of February 2022], the losses in our combat aviation were almost minimal, almost zero. These are little-known steps, a lot of them were taken at the last moment, probably, but they were taken.

VOA: How else did Ukraine manage to survive, during the first, very difficult days of the full-scale invasion?

Budanov: Thanks to our people, heroism. What else can I add? Everyone saw … Russia is out there crying that this is their Great Patriotic War; in fact, it is not yet for them. But for us, it is actually a Great Patriotic War. Everyone, from teenagers to old men, at that time, everyone stood up for defense.

VOA: Ukraine and Russia have very different military power, of course, both in terms of manpower and military equipment. What does Ukraine need most today in order to make a breakthrough in this military process?

Budanov: I don’t think I will say anything new for you; it is the intensification of weapons supply. Intensification. “Armament is coming, but the pace and volume are not sufficient for a breakthrough.”

VOA: Is it about some special, specific equipment, additional equipment, or is it about what is already supplied?

Budanov: Mostly about what I think is already supplied. In addition, we need attack aircraft, which as of now have not yet arrived.

VOA: There are many calls for the provision of F-16s to Ukraine. Is F-16 a panacea? Are there different types of similar weapons that Ukraine needs?

Budanov: In my opinion, we need attack aircraft. F-16 and similar platforms are not attack aircraft. Assault aircraft, in the USA, are first of all, A10 Thunderbolt II aircraft. This is also army aviation, but these are attack helicopters of the AH-64 type and so on. These are aerial platforms designed for ground strikes.

VOA: Why, then, does the president of Ukraine and his team talk specifically about the F-16?

Budanov: As I already said, this is my exclusively subjective vision, let’s say so. Maybe someone sees a different concept.

VOA: There is a lot of talk about a major Russian offensive. There were predictions that there would be massive missile shelling on the 23rd, 24th [of February 2023]. We did not see it.

Budanov: Thank God, it hasn’t happened yet. But this, let’s face it, unfortunately, is quite an everyday matter for Ukraine now. The only irregularity in it is that each time, the time between missile strikes increases, and the number of missiles in the strikes decreases. Here is the only regularity.

VOA: And what is the reason for this trend?

Budanov: Reduction of missile stocks. There is no other reason. They are already, in fact, ranging almost at zero.

VOA: There is a lot of talk about China being able to supply weapons for [Russia].

Budanov: I do not share this opinion. As of now, I do not think that China will agree to the supply of weapons to Russia. I see no indication that such things are even being negotiated.

VOA: American officials are also talking about it…

Budanov: I am the head of intelligence and, excuse me, but I rely, not on the opinion, with all due respect, of individual people, but only on facts. I do not see such facts.

VOA: Where else can Russia get supplies to continue the war in Ukraine today?

Budanov: Well, let’s say, if you are interested in other countries, as I understand from your question, in fact, almost the only country that actually supplies more or less serious weapons is Iran. I won’t tell you anything new either. There was information that something was coming from North Korea, but we have no confirmation of that. And there is not a single case when we would record that here is some kind of weapon that came from North Korea, that it was used here. Maybe we just haven’t seen it yet or it goes to some other, let’s say, needs. Well, let’s say, other countries, Russia is just trying to buy anything, anywhere. Because their problems are significant. Serbia, which everyone in Russia hoped for, refused to supply weapons. There are certain efforts to buy through third countries. Large-scale withdrawal of weapons. Now they are trying with Myanmar, we will see what will come of it in time. But in fact, Russia is limited, let’s say, by Iran in terms of weapons. As of now.

VOA: From what you say, Russia is practically exhausting its military reserves. But it doesn’t look like (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is going to stop in this war.

Budanov: I’m sorry, but what, according to you, should it be so that somehow it looks different?

VOA: I’m not here to express my opinion, I’m asking. How can Russia continue this war under these conditions?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way. Being in these conditions, Russia cannot afford, as of now, to admit that it will lose. This is, let’s say, a direct dependence of the stability of the regime on this factor. However, if you rephrase, reformulate your question: “Is Russia unanimous, let’s say, on the issue of continuing hostilities?” The answer will be no. Not unanimous. In terms of the top state leadership. Many have come to the understanding that, after all, something is wrong. Let’s put it this way.

VOA: So, there is a split in the Russian leadership now?

Budanov: Opinions are divided. This cannot be called a split. Opinions are divided. And there are not so many people who speak out, in the leadership, I emphasize, for the fact that there is a war until the end and so on. For the most part, those people who are in favor of it, let’s say, behind this desire, they have a banal fear of responsibility. Because there are a certain number of people who will not be able to say that somehow a decision was made there without us, it was not us. There are very few of them, by the way.

VOA: And those people who do not agree with this war, do they have an influence on the decision, do they have an influence on Putin?

Budanov: Everyone is waiting for a certain moment when, let’s say, the tower of the Kremlin, which advocates a unanimous war, figuratively speaking, leans against the wall and admits that it is not going well. It’s a dead end.

VOA: And then? What to expect?

Budanov: Then we will see how things will go on. If you want to lead to the idea that, well, then they will get along there. They will not get along. Nothing will happen without our decisive actions.

VOA: I have heard such thoughts among the political elite in the USA that they do not see how this war can end, and in particular, maybe it can be just some kind of long-term, deep, unstable truce. Do you see it?

Budanov: I do not believe in this. No. First of all, Ukraine will not agree to such conditions; this is the first reason why it is unrealistic. And secondly, it simply won’t happen. And Russia is not ready for long-term hostilities. I am telling you this as the head of the military intelligence service. They show in every possible way that they are ready for “a war for decades,” but in reality, their resources are quite limited. Both in time and in volume. And they know it very well.

VOA: So they are also in a hurry?

Budanov: Everyone will be in a hurry right now.

VOA: We have already talked many times about the fact that the next three months will be decisive.

Budanov: Not just decisive. They will be quite active. Well, very active. Which will determine the further course of events. It’s active combat if you’re leading to that. This is what’s going to happen. Efforts will be on both sides.

VOA: Are we talking today about the east, Donetsk, Luhansk region. Or we are talking about the South?

Budanov: Absolutely everywhere.

VOA: Are we talking about the north?

Budanov: North, do you mean Russia’s attempt to attack Kyiv? Let’s put it this way. We do not know of such plans and there are no signs of any real ones. It’s not that we don’t know them, they just don’t exist. Maybe when they get certain defeats, they will look for a quick solution, but it will be a disaster for them. Another one, similar to what happened back then [in February-March 2022].

VOA: From the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, even before the full-scale invasion, very active cooperation with the intelligence services of the USA and Great Britain began.

Budanov: You are wrong; this cooperation has been going on for many years. It just burst into the mass media now, let’s put it this way. This cooperation has a long history.

VOA: How important is it for Ukraine today?

Budanov: With no exaggeration, you understand that we need everyone’s help now. These are common truths. This helps us. Certain technical capabilities of the U.S., which we do not have, they significantly add to our understanding. First of all, it concerns the military component. Such as, movement at a considerable depth and so on.

VOA: Do you have ongoing cooperation with senior intelligence management? If possible, how does this cooperation take place?

Budanov: What intelligence?

VOA: In particular, the USA.

Budanov: We have all communications.

VOA: Now, about Ukrainian defense capability. During this year, in fact, for the first time, Ukraine strengthened militarily very much, and was also able to go further in its technical equipment and developments. What progressive changes have taken place in the army and in intelligence in particular?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way, we have accelerated quite a lot, intensified the pace of reconnaissance of everything related to unmanned aircraft complexes. This area is developing very actively. This is, in principle, such a general global trend, and Ukraine, as, unfortunately, Russia, in this aspect did not become an exception. It should be mentioned, as an example, that the first thing Russia began to buy was drones. Drones were the first thing that they, and the most important thing, that in principle they try to get from all over the world.

VOA: Ukraine uses, and has an IT industry, very actively. Can today’s Ukraine really be of service in the same way, in particular to NATO countries, because there is talk that after the end of the war, Ukraine will be one of the most powerful military machines in Europe. Can you agree with this?

Budanov: Ukraine will never serve anyone. But becoming a reliable partner, well, it has already happened in fact.

VOA: How can Ukraine be useful as a partner today?

Budanov: Ukraine is now the guarantor of security, in fact, for the whole of Europe. And this is true without exaggeration. Let’s put it this way. All of Eastern Europe understands this absolutely clearly. There are different opinions further, but what concerns Eastern Europe, everyone agrees on this. And in fact, why is everyone trying so hard to help Ukrainians in every possible way? Because if it somehow happened that Ukraine would have fallen, they would be next. And I’m sorry, but the capabilities of these countries are in no way comparable to Ukraine. Everything would be much worse there.

VOA: It is clear that the countries of Eastern Europe understand very well that they are next, that is why they are very active, their leaders talk about it and lobby for the interests of Ukraine and their interests, first of all. Why do you think, especially in the countries of Western Europe, there is no such deep understanding of the danger that comes from Russia?

Budanov: I am sorry, but what is the danger for them other than this, purely hypothetical? Tell me. What could even be in theory?

If, this [aggression] went to the east of Europe, then they would understand that there is a problem, because it would come closer to them. Well, that already happened. After the end of the Second World War, the Warsaw bloc and the NATO bloc stood close to each other. Then everyone understood it. Then such a conditional buffer appeared. Everyone started saying that, well, in fact, you can trade and live normally with Russia. It’s some of their business there; it’s something of theirs, and we don’t get into that. Well, it was the same. Very recently.

VOA: So, Ukraine today, in fact, creates new trends in international politics to some extent?

Budanov: Thanks to the idiocy of the Russians, all their biggest geopolitical horror stories have become a reality. And Ukraine will become one of the most powerful states, and, let’s say, they have already encountered Western weapons. And we all disposed of, let’s say, jointly, all the remains of Soviet weapons from around the world. And they threw out the defense industrial complex of the Russian Federation for many years from the world arms trade. And, let’s say, yes, they limited the activity of their defense industrial complex. They disposed of, in fact, the entire able-bodied part of their army. This, again, sets back their military ambitions for many years. Because simply all specialists, the majority no longer exist.

VOA: If you’re talking about Russia, I see here are maps of what Russia could look like.

Budanov: This is not what it might look like. This is their future. Their very real future.

VOA: So, you see the division of Russia after this war?

Budanov: There are already problems in Russia and they will only increase. The sooner they leave Ukraine, the more chances, in theory, they will have to keep their territory within more or less similar borders. It will not be the same as it was, but more or less similar. Perhaps it will become a real federation, because in fact, if you look at their legislation, they are closer to a unitary state, although they are called a federation. It could turn into a confederation. And so on. As it was, there will be nothing to hold on to.

VOA: You recently visited the Vatican. You have been meeting with the pope. What was the purpose of this visit? Why is the pope himself important?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way. Since I hold several positions, and one of them is the head of the center for the exchange of prisoners of war, I have to, let’s say, try all the mechanisms that even hypothetically exist in the world. This was my main, let’s say, goal.

VOA: That the pope would help in the exchange process.

Budanov: Let’s say, try to connect the Holy See to this process as well.

VOA: And?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way, altogether the mechanisms gave the result we have.

VOA: How does this exchange process take place today, and how possible and effective is dialogue with Russia in this particular context, the return of prisoners of war?

Budanov: The situation is unique in all aspects. Because, maybe it was somewhere, but we have consulted with many foreign partners, how they do it. None of them conducted exchanges during hostilities. In principle, so far only we have succeeded in this. To say that everything is great is absolutely not the case, that would be a lie on my part. Because there are people and many of them in captivity. You can’t say that things are going great. You can’t say that it’s terrible either, well, I’m sorry, with all due respect and understanding of the delicacy of the issue. Because, again, these exchanges are going on and about 2,000 people have already been returned. This is quite a significant amount. Therefore, everything is in working order. Unfortunately, the Russian side often puts sticks in the wheels. But still, we find effective mechanisms that force them to take such steps [war prisoners exchange].

Budanov: We have returned about 2,000. You can understand, these will be significant numbers [the total number of those in captivity].

VOA: You say you are finding mechanisms that work. May I ask, perhaps which ones?

Budanov: We are a special service. I’m sorry, our forms and methods of work are… read the books, they haven’t changed in years.

VOA: Is it possible to publish the numbers of Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine?

Budanov: I tell you again, you should understand. Almost 2,000 were exchanged.

VOA: But are these numbers similar in the total amount? How many prisoners of war are there now on both sides?

Budanov: Unfortunately, they have more prisoners of war than we do. This is very easy to explain. First of all, they captured 90% of all prisoners of war in the first days. The first days, the first month… We do not take civilians as prisoners. There are a lot of women, unfortunately, and children, there are all kinds of elders, postmen, railway workers, mayors, and janitors. Everyone is there.

VOA: Are there any that Ukraine simply does not know — the number that is not recorded?

Budanov: Most likely, there are some, but believe me, 99%, we know who they are.

VOA: Recently, there has been a lot of information about the fact that (Ukrainian) President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy announced Russia’s desire to overthrow the leadership of Moldova. It was very well publicized, there was a lot of talk about it, and Moldova changed its government almost immediately after that. What risks do you see from that side?

Budanov: When you mentioned the change of government, you have to look at the person who came. (Prime Minister) Dorin Recean. He is quite a professional person and he is a military bloc, a power bloc; it is more correct to say so. Therefore, it is clear that the situation is not the easiest for Moldova. By the way, Transnistria (PMR ) plays not the first role here. This is precisely the issue of the Russian Federation’s attempt to overthrow the constitutional authority. Well, as you can see, they haven’t succeeded yet. A number of measures have been applied, which, for sure, will give results, and all these plans will once again fail. They have already partially experienced this failure in its infancy.

VOA: How important was it for you to convey this information to the Moldovan leadership? How important do you see the risks on that part?

Budanov: I’m telling you, the set of measures that have been taken and are being taken make Russia’s efforts impossible.

VOA: Another question about nuclear weapons. Many people talk about this and say that if Ukraine approaches the borders of Crimea and really wants to take Crimea, then the last step will be, for Putin to use nuclear weapons?

Budanov: And how many times has it happened already? Red line — Russia will use nuclear weapons, Russia is already using it, almost. The first time it happened at the end of spring, and then once every month-and-a-half. The apogee was from late summer to mid-autumn. At that point it was that they will launch a nuclear strike right there tomorrow. Did they? No, they did not. Can they do it? Hypothetically, everything in life is possible. In reality? No, it’s not possible. Because the Russian Federation is a state, let’s say, a soap bubble.

I mean in a sense that they inflate everything. There are not such idiots sitting there as they want to appear to the world. They clearly understand the first thing: nuclear weapons are not [offensive] weapons. It is a means of strategic deterrence. Secondly: the use of a nuclear deterrent by anyone in the world will lead to fatal consequences for whomever does it. No matter who it is.

VOA: Even if we are talking about tactical nuclear weapons?

Budanov: What’s the difference? This is the answer.

VOA: What is the deterrent to them not to do it?

Budanov: Again, if you and I will get into details of this issue, we will spend hours. With all the power of the Soviet Union, and it is incomparable with the Russian Federation today, absolutely incomparable. Several times everything was on the edge. Well, have they used it? No. And can it be used? No it cannot. This is not a weapon, I tell you again, it is officially a means of strategic deterrence.

VOA: Final question. How do you see the end of this war?

Budanov: The most difficult question. The end of the war in the first stage will be the return to the administrative borders of 1991. This is probably the correct answer. This will cause a change in the entire architecture and security, and the economy, and everything else in the entire region. That’s why I say: At the first stage, this is access to the administrative borders.

Next, we need to look at the security zone around Ukraine, at least from the Russian side. To a depth of 100 kilometers or more. And so on.
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