Month: February 2023

Ukrainians and their supporters marched in Warsaw, Poland, on Friday, one year after Moscow launched its full-scale war on Ukraine. Poland is host to more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees. Lesia Bakalets has more from Warsaw.
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Editor’s note: Here is a fast take on what the international community has been up to this past week, as seen from the United Nations perch.

One year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Friday marked one year since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There were several meetings at U.N. headquarters during the week to mark the somber anniversary.

On Friday, the Security Council held a high-level meeting on the conflict. The Ukrainian foreign minister was defiant, saying Ukraine would continue to resist Russia’s attack and would win. “Putin is going to lose much sooner than he thinks,” Dmytro Kuleba said.

Ukraine Will Resist and Win, Foreign Minister Tells UN

Support remains strong for Ukraine

On Thursday, the international community reaffirmed its strong support for Ukraine, adopting a resolution calling for “a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” as soon as possible in Ukraine, in line with the principles in the U.N. Charter. Only six countries voted with Russia to reject the motion.

At UN, Ukraine Finds Strong Support One Year into Conflict

POW tells of ‘3,000 hours of Russian hell’

The violation of the human rights of Ukrainians by Russia in the conflict, particularly of the thousands of children abducted to Russia and the treatment of Ukrainian captives, was the subject of a meeting Wednesday. Ukrainian marine Artem Dyblenko told the gathering of his 125 days — or 3,000 hours — as a Russian prisoner of war that he endured physical, moral and psychological abuse. “Three thousand hours of Russian hell,” he said.

At UN, Former Ukrainian POWs Appeal for Justice

Casualty figures released, but likely are low

The U.N. Human Rights office published new figures Tuesday on the casualties incurred since the war began one year ago. Their monitors have confirmed at least 8,006 civilians have been killed and 13,287 injured over the past 12 months, but they acknowledge the true toll is much higher.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Exacting Devastating Toll on Civilians

In brief

While Ukraine has been in the spotlight this week, the world body also has been tending to other crises and situations.

— Humanitarians have been working tirelessly to assist earthquake victims in Turkey and Syria. The death toll has risen to 47,000 and thousands remain homeless after the February 6 quake. Another quake on Monday killed several more people. The United Nations is coordinating humanitarian assessments in affected parts of Turkey to determine what is needed. In Syria, 368 aid trucks have crossed into opposition-controlled parts of northwest Syria since February 9, when crossing points became usable again. A U.N. flash appeal for nearly $400 million to cover needs for the next three months is nearly 40% funded, while a $1 billion appeal for Turkey, is just over 7% funded. The U.N. says it has not received any money for key areas, including temporary settlement support and debris removal.

— The U.N. Security Council expressed “deep concern and dismay” Monday regarding Israel’s announcement that it plans to expand settlements and retroactively legalize nine existing ones. It is the first time in more than six years the 15-nation council has expressed itself about settlements, mainly because of the veto power of the United States, which traditionally acts to protect ally Israel at the U.N. It comes at a time of rising tensions and violence between the two sides. At least 58 Palestinians and 11 Israelis have been killed since the start of the year.

— The council also met Monday to discuss the latest ballistic missile provocations by North Korea. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said she would seek Security Council unity in responding to the launches, despite previous opposition from China and Russia. The divisions among the council’s permanent members over what to do about Pyongyang has prevented new action. The U.S. and its western allies, plus Japan and South Korea, want to see tougher sanctions imposed on North Korea, but China and Russia say that is a “dead end.”

— The U.N. is assisting victims of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which killed at least 7 people in eastern Madagascar this week. Humanitarians are helping the government by providing food, water and other aid. The U.N. says at least 79,000 people were impacted by the cyclone.

— On Tuesday, the U.N. mission in Mali, MINUSMA, said three Senegalese peacekeepers were killed and five others injured in central Mali when their convoy hit an improvised explosive device. The head of the mission, El-Ghassim Wane, said this was yet another tragic illustration of the complexity of the operational environment and sacrifices made for restoring peace in the country. Mali is one of the most dangerous U.N. peacekeeping missions.

Quote of note

“Life is a living hell for the people of Ukraine.”

— Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to the Security Council meeting marking the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine. He has repeatedly called for peace in line with the U.N. Charter and international law.

What we are watching next week

On Monday, in Geneva, the United Nations with the governments of Sweden and Switzerland will convene a high-level pledging event for Yemen. Despite an ease in fighting, nearly two-thirds of the population are projected to need humanitarian assistance. The country remains one of the biggest humanitarian emergencies the U.N. is working on, with aid agencies helping 11 million Yemenis each month in 2022.
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Turkey has begun work to rebuild homes following this month’s devastating earthquakes, a government official said Friday, as the combined death toll in Turkey and Syria surpassed 50,000.

More than 160,000 buildings containing 520,000 apartments collapsed or were severely damaged in the Feb. 6 earthquakes that killed tens of thousands in Turkey and neighboring Syria.

The Disaster and Emergency Management Authority announced the death toll in Turkey due to earthquakes rose to 44,218 on Friday night.

With Syria’s latest announced death toll of 5,914, the combined death toll in the two countries rose to above 50,000.

Facing an election within months, President Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to rebuild homes within a year, although experts have said the authorities should put safety before speed. Some buildings that were meant to withstand tremors crumbled in the latest earthquakes.

“For several projects, tenders and contracts have been done. The process is moving very fast,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity, adding there would be no compromise on safety.

Authorities say tents have been dispatched for the many who are homeless, but people have reported trouble accessing them.

“I have eight children. We are living in a tent. There is water on top (of the tent) and the ground is damp. We are asking for more tents and they don’t give them to us,” Melek, 67, who was waiting in a line to collect aid outside a high school in the town of Hassa.

The school was being used as an aid distribution center by a group of volunteers called Interrail Turkey. One volunteer, Sumeyye Karabocek, said the shortage of tents remained the biggest problem.

Half a million new homes needed

Erdogan’s government has endured a wave of criticism over both its response to the devastation and what many Turks say were years of non-enforcement of construction quality control.

The Turkish government’s initial plan now is to build 200,000 apartments and 70,000 village houses at a cost of at least $15 billion, he said. U.S. bank J.P. Morgan estimated rebuilding houses and infrastructure will cost $25 billion.

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) said it estimated that the destruction has left 1.5 million people homeless, with 500,000 new homes needed.

It said it had requested $113.5 million from the $1 billion in funds appealed for by the United Nations last week, adding that it would focus this money on clearing away mountains of rubble.

The UNDP estimates that the disaster had produced between 116 million and 210 million tons of rubble, compared with 13 million tons of rubble after the earthquake in northwest Turkey in 1999.

Turkey also issued new regulations under which companies and charities can build homes and workplaces to donate to the urbanization ministry for people in need.

Many survivors have left the region of southern Turkey that was hit by the quake or have been settled in tents, container homes and other government-sponsored accommodation.

In Antakya, Saeed Sleiman Ertoglu, 56, loaded up what remained of his stock from his waterpipe shop that was not damaged.

“The glassware was very beautiful, more than usual, but then we had this (earthquake), and it all got ruined,” he said, after his home and shop survived the first tremors but not the later one. He estimated that just 5% of his merchandise survived.

“What can we do?” he said. “This is an act of God, and God’s will always bears gifts.”
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While most of the world is focused on the battles still to come in Ukraine, the Czech Republic’s chief envoy in Washington says his country is already at work on the massive task of rebuilding.

“We’re sending generators to provide electricity, we have a constant flow of delegations traveling to Ukraine, to identify what is needed on the ground, evaluate those needs, and provide our help to them,” Ambassador Miloslav Stasek said in an interview this week.

Speaking at his residence adjacent to the embassy in a wooded area in northwest Washington, Stasek said his country has decided to focus its efforts on Dnipro, a major city in eastern Ukraine that has been heavily damaged by Russian airstrikes.

“It is dangerous for people to travel there, for sure,” Stasek acknowledged. “This is very close to the [battle] front, but that’s why we picked this area, because Russian forces have inflicted heavy damages [there].”

The Czech Republic’s commitment to helping Ukraine dates from the earliest days of the war a year ago, the diplomat said.

“On February 25, the second day of the conflict, we stopped issuing visas to Russians,” Stasek said, adding that his government was pleased to see some other European countries follow suit.

Stasek also pointed out that Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, together with his Slovenian and Polish counterparts, became the first foreign leaders to visit Ukraine and meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a time when “Russian forces were 60 kilometers away from Kyiv.”

On the eve of the one-year mark of the war, Fiala issued a statement in Prague recalling the journey his country undertook to support Ukraine.

“We clearly knew from the very first moment — perhaps thanks to our own historical experience — that we had to stand up for Ukraine. And we did it — not only the government, but the whole country, and it makes me truly proud,” said Fiala, who took office in November 2021.

Throughout the past year, the Ukrainian government’s message to its supporters has been consistent: weapons, weapons, and more weapons. Their requests initially were met with careful consideration — bordering on hesitation in some capitals — but Prague was quick to respond: It became the first country to deliver attack helicopters, main battle tanks, multiple rocket launchers and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

“We wanted to open the gate for other countries to follow suit,” explained Stasek. He said he was glad to see that his country, along with other Central and Eastern European nations, had taken the lead in answering Ukraine’s call for help.

“The ‘Zeitenwende’ brought about by the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, has indeed led to a subtle but noticeable shift in the power-balance of Europe,” Martin Weiss, who served as Austria’s ambassador to the United States from 2019 to 2022 and is currently the president and CEO of the Salzburg Global Seminar, told VOA in a written interview from Austria. “Zeitenwende” is a term made famous by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last year depicting the “critical shift” in geopolitics caused by the war.

While “the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and others” are making their weight felt, the Paris-Berlin axis is now “leading from behind, to put it nicely,” Weiss said.

The war has also enhanced ties within European countries, Stasek told VOA. Having had to diversify energy supplies “almost overnight,” the land-locked Czech Republic reached an agreement with the Dutch government to lease a liquid natural gas (LNG) terminal to facilitate the delivery of American LNG through Germany.

Before the war started, nearly 99% of the Czech Republic’s gas energy needs came from Russia; that figure is now near zero, Stasek said. Nearly two-thirds of his country’s oil demand was met by Russia and that is now down to a “minimal” level.

The sudden shifts in the energy sector have had “negative side effects” for his country’s economy and social welfare, Stasek acknowledged.

“With energy prices going up, [the] price of regular stuff in the shops also goes up, as does the cost of services,” he said. Being land-locked makes it especially costly to acquire energy from new sources.

Currently the country’s inflation rate stands at about 17%, one of the highest in Europe – a fact partly attributable to decisions by its independent central bank to keep interest rates low and the Czech currency strong against both the dollar and the euro.

“Our exports are now very expensive and not as competitive in the global marketplace,” he said.

In a fact sheet examining the war and its impact on the Czech society, the Prague government acknowledged that hosting Ukrainian refugees has been a sizable burden for both the central government and local administrations.

Together they have provided free health care and education for a peak number of almost 490,000 refugees, according to the U.N. High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR), which is equivalent to a sudden expansion of the Czech population by 6%.

Stasek expressed satisfaction that his country didn’t have to build shelters for the refugees. “People opened their hearts and their homes” to bring them in, he said, noting that Ukrainians already represented “the biggest minority group in our country,” totaling 200,000 people before the war started.

Stasek pointed out that his country played a significant role in forging a united European Union response to the severe challenges brought on by the war during Prague’s rotating EU presidency in the second half of 2022.

“For us, the biggest task was to keep the unity of the European Union and strengthen transatlantic ties, to not allow Russia to divide us,” he said. To that end, “we were able to keep everybody together, and [together] put a ceiling to energy prices.”

Toward the end of its rotating presidency, Prague urged the bloc to consider negotiating energy prices as a single entity in order to put pressure on suppliers and get the price down for member states.

But, he maintained, inflation and the other stresses caused by the war have not deterred the Czechs from doing their best to help the Ukrainians. “This is the price we have to pay,” he said.
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One year after Russia invaded Ukraine, aid-dependent Somalia is still feeling the effects, as escalating prices for wheat and the long-running regional drought put millions at risk of starvation.

According to traders in Somalia’s main markets, the price of a local food basket has increased by 49 percent over the past 12 months. Fuel prices have nearly doubled, increasing 92 percent compared to a year ago.

Shoki Hayir, a lecturer at Mogadishu’s SIMAD University and a conflict researcher, told VOA that Russia’s war in Ukraine cut off Somalia from one of its main international food sources.

“Somalia had sourced more than 90% of its grains from Ukraine and Russia before the war and since it has been suffering from a shortage of food supplies in a difficult time, when thousands of people are on the verge of famine and the world largely focuses on Ukraine,” said Hayir.

Humanitarian aid has helped, but contributions are falling short, in part because Ukraine is commanding donors’ attention, said Somali economic analyst Ali Mohamed Osman.

“Somalia’s crisis hasn’t been at the top of donors’ minds since the beginning of the Ukraine war because the humanitarian attention has shifted to the greater Ukraine devastation,” Osman said. “Therefore, the impact of the severe drought that came on the heels of the COVID-19, have largely continued, pushing Somalia closer toward famine.”

Because of Somalia’s chronically shaky security, political and environmental conditions, many nations and organizations have contributed generously over the years to help the country and its people survive. But Hayir says when those donors shift their attention elsewhere, countries like Somalia suffer.

“A nation cannot fully and always be dependent on international aid,” Hayir said. “Somalis with the help of the international community need to focus more on agricultural development and to produce their food because bigger crises can always unfold elsewhere in the world and push it deep into humanitarian crisis.”

Last week, aid workers in Somalia said they were concerned about a likely reduction in humanitarian support. They said donor fatigue, compounded by multiple crises around the world that also require humanitarian support, could reduce the level of funds Somalia’s appeal received.

“The main reason why there’s a donor fatigue is because, as you can imagine, Somalia has been receiving humanitarian assistance for over three decades now and the situation has not been changing,” said Mohamed Abdi, country director for the Norwegian Refugee Council.

The Somali government and humanitarian agencies recently appealed for $2.6 billion to assist about 7.6 million people in 2023. The appeal comes amid warnings that famine is a strong possibility if rains in the spring underperform and if humanitarian assistance is not sustained.

Abdiaziz Ahmed contributed to this report
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The latest round of EU sanctions imposed on the Myanmar junta were welcomed by advocacy groups monitoring human rights violations in the Southeast Asian country.

Yadanar Maung, spokesperson for the human rights advocacy group Justice for Myanmar, said in a statement to VOA on Thursday that the sanctions were “important in catching up with sanctions already imposed by the U.S., U.K. and Canada on arms brokers and units of the military responsible for supplying and manufacturing arms.”

In a statement released Monday, Burma Campaign UK said, “This round of sanctions is well targeted, focusing on suppliers of aviation fuel, arms brokers, military procurement entities and members of the Burmese [Myanmar] military and associated bodies.”

This sixth round of EU sanctions imposed on the junta Monday includes nine individuals and seven entities the EU says have contributed to escalating violence and human rights violations in Myanmar.

According to Justice for Myanmar, or JFM, arms brokers targeted in the latest round of sanctions include Aung Hlaing Oo, Sit Taing Aung and Kyaw Min Oo, along with the companies Dynasty International, International Gateways Group and Sky Aviator Company Limited.

JFM’s statement highlights how these Myanmar arms brokers and companies are linked to companies in the EU. For instance, “Aung Hlaing Oo and Dynasty International both have business with EU companies, and future activities will be prevented through these sanctions.”

It added, “Dynasty International brokered the supply and maintenance of G120TP aircraft from the German corporation Grob Aircraft SE.” However, “the German government stated they are not aware of the sale of Grob G120TP aircraft to the Myanmar air force,” JFM said in its statement.

The new EU sanctions also apply to an aviation fuel supplier, Asia Sun Group, which brokers the supply of jet fuel to the junta. This company “stands complicit in its [the junta’s] international crimes,” the statement reads. “This will help disrupt the supply of jet fuel to the junta, which it needs for its continued indiscriminate airstrikes.”

Additionally, JFM said, the “new designations fill major gaps in the EU’s sanctions regime, targeting key arms brokers and military institutions.”

The EU has restrictive measures on 93 individuals and 18 entities. Those who are sanctioned are subject to an asset freeze and a travel ban in EU territory.

The EU announced its first round of sanctions in March 2021, after the military coup in February of the same year that ousted the democratically elected government of de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked global outrage. Further targeted sanctions followed, with two rounds in 2021, and two more in 2022.

“These sanctions will take time to have an impact, which is why we need the EU to speed up the implementation of sanctions — two rounds a year is not enough,” Mark Farmaner, executive director of Burma Campaign UK, told VOA.

Additionally, “monitoring and implementation of EU sanctions is up to individual EU member states,” Farmaner said. “There is no transparency about how they monitor sanctions or action taken regarding breaches of sanctions.”

According to the statement by JFM, “the junta’s response to mass resistance has been the continued commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity, murdering over 3,000 people, arbitrarily arresting over 19,000 more, displacing 1.1 million people and carrying out indiscriminate attacks across Myanmar, enabled by the supply of funds, arms and jet fuel.”

JFM’s Maung told VOA that “the EU, U.K., U.S., Canada and Australia need to coordinate better and speed up the pace of their sanctions designations to have a meaningful impact to cut the junta’s access to arms and funds.”

Three military arms procurement bodies, which have been sanctioned by the U.S., Britain and Canada in December 2021, also were placed under the latest EU sanctions.

These bodies were the Myanmar Office of the Quarter Master General, the Myanmar Directorate of Defense Industries and the Myanmar Directorate of Defense Procurement.

“The EU has taken the important step of sanctioning the crony conglomerate IGE [the International Group of Entrepreneurs Co. Ltd.] in 2022, but the impact of this is reduced because the EU did not also sanction Ne Aung [the owner of the IGE] and his partners, while the U.S., U.K., Canada and Australia have not sanctioned IGE at all. More action is urgently needed,” said Maung.

Ne Aung’s brother, the commander of the Myanmar navy, Moe Aung, was included in the latest round of the EU sanctions. Their father, Aung Thaung, now deceased, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2014 for “perpetuating violence, oppression and corruption.”

Other individuals listed in the latest round of EU sanctions were Maung Maung Aye, chief of general staff for the Myanmar army, navy, and air force; Myo Myint Aung, Yangon region economic minister of the State Administration Council; Zin Min Htet, deputy minister for home affairs and chief of the Myanmar police force; Ko Ko Maung, regional military commander in Kachin state; and Myo Myint Oo, union minister for energy.

The Myanmar junta has not yet made any comments regarding the EU sanctions.
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has added to Pakistan’s woes as its import-dependent economy has suffered price shocks. One year later, Islamabad not only continues to maintain a neutral diplomatic stance on Russia, but it is also trying to deepen trade ties with Moscow to acquire cheap energy. Sarah Zaman reports on how Pakistan walks a diplomatic tightrope in this conflict. Videographer: Wajid Ali Shah, Waqar Ahmad; Video editor: Waqar Ahmed
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A meeting of finance officials of the Group of 20 countries, which coincided with the anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine, revealed sharp differences between the world’s biggest economies on the conflict. The meeting began Friday in India’s southern city of Bengaluru. 

At the opening session, U.S. Trade Secretary Janet Yellen called on G-20 countries to “redouble their efforts to support Ukraine and restrict Russia’s capacity to wage war.”

“I urge the Russian officials here at the G-20 to understand that their continued work for the Kremlin makes them complicit in [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s atrocities,” Yellen said. “They bear responsibility for the lives and livelihoods being taken in Ukraine and the harm caused globally.” 

Russia’s finance minister did not attend the meeting and Moscow was represented by deputies.

Yellen also said that Russia’s “weaponization” of food and energy has not only affected Ukraine adversely, but it also has harmed the global economy. 

However, India, which holds the G-20 presidency this year, stayed away from mentioning the Ukraine conflict. New Delhi has not condemned the Russian invasion publicly nor joined Western sanctions against Russia. However, it has stepped up purchases of Russian oil.

In a video address to the gathering, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged the world’s leading economies to focus on the world’s “most vulnerable citizens of the world.”

Modi said the COVID-19 pandemic and “rising geo-political tensions in different parts of the world” had led to unsustainable debt levels in several countries, disruptions to global supply chains and threats to food and energy security.

“You represent the leadership of global finance and economy at a time when the world is facing serious economic difficulties,” Modi said. “It is up to you, the custodians of the leading economies and market systems, to bring back stability, confidence and growth to the global economy.”

It remains unclear if delegates in Bengaluru will reach a consensus on a joint statement that is to be issued Saturday because of differences among delegates from different countries.

India does not want the word “war” to be mentioned, instead preferring the geopolitical tension to be referred to as a “crisis” or a “challenge,” according to domestic media reports.  

But countries like the U.S., Germany and Britain emphasized the need for an explicit mention of the Russian invasion.

Calling for “absolute clarity” on the anniversary at a news conference, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said, “This is a war. And this war has a cause, has one cause, and that is Russia and Vladimir Putin. That must be expressed clearly at this G-20 finance meeting.”

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt told reporters, “In the end, unless we resolve the global security threats, there can be no progress on these other areas.”

On Thursday, Yellen told a news conference that she would like to see a “strong condemnation” of Russia’s invasion. 

The G-20, which includes advanced and emerging economies, was created after the Asian financial crisis in 1999, and is seen as a forum that focuses on how to manage global economic crises.

At the two-day talks, ministers are expected to discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war on poorer nations that have been adversely impacted by high food and fuel prices and are grappling with high debt.

They also will focus on issues including reform of institutions like the World Bank, debt relief for low-income countries, climate change and financial inclusion.

“Trust in international financial institutions has eroded. This is partly because they have been slow to reform themselves,” Modi said in his address.

India is hoping to use its presidency of the G-20 to bring attention to the problems faced by developing countries and emerge as the voice of what Indian officials call the “Global South.”
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Sixty Ukrainian ballet dancers fled Ukraine to escape Russia’s invasion over the past year. They ended up in the Netherlands, where they continue to dance together. Mariia Ulianovska has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. Camera: Kostiantyn Golubchyk 
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday his nation will be victorious against Russia as the war with the neighboring country entered its second year with no apparent end in sight.

“We endured.  We were not defeated. And we will do everything to gain victory this year,” Zelenskyy said in a statement released on social media. “Ukraine has inspired the world. Ukraine has united the world,” he added.

Leaders of the Group of 7 were set to meet virtually Friday to announce new sanctions against those aiding Russia’s war effort.

The White House said Friday it is imposing sweeping new sanctions targeting banking, mining and defense sectors as well as “over 200 individuals and entities, including both Russian and third-country actors across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East that are supporting Russia’s war effort.”

The White House also announced Friday an additional $2 billion in assistance to Ukraine. “Specifically, the United States is committing additional Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment, as well as critical ammunition stocks for artillery and precision fires capabilities that will bolster Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian aggression,” the White House said in a statement.

The United Nations approved a resolution Thursday demanding the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Russia troops from Ukraine.

Meanwhile, China on Friday called for a cease-fire and the opening of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. It was part of a 12-point proposal that also urged the end of Western sanctions against Russia, suggested measures to prevent attacks on civilian infrastructure, ensure the safety of nuclear facilities and establish corridors for the delivery of humanitarian aid.  China has sought to be seen as neutral in the conflict but has refused to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The diplomatic moves come against the backdrop of continued fighting in eastern Ukraine.  Ukraine said Thursday it has repelled attempted Russian advances along the length of the front line of fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine, leaving the war in a stalemate a day ahead of the first anniversary of Moscow’s invasion.

Russia controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, far short of the quick, countrywide takeover many military analysts predicted a year ago as Moscow’s tanks rolled into Ukraine’s eastern flank.

In the most recent fighting, Moscow’s forces have made progress trying to encircle Bakhmut, with Ukrainian military spokesperson Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov saying Moscow was trying to use its manpower advantage to exhaust Kyiv’s forces.

“The enemy, despite significant losses, does not abandon attempts to surround Bakhmut,” he said.

But Ukraine said Russian troops have failed to break through Ukrainian lines to the north near Kreminna and to the south at Vuhledar, where they have sustained heavy losses assaulting across open ground.

Gromov said Ukrainian forces repelled 90 Russian attacks in the northeast and east in the last day.

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 
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Ukrainians living in South Africa are marking one year since Russia’s invasion with a dance production titled ‘We Stand for Freedom.’ The performance, supported by the Desmond and Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation, draws parallels between racial oppression under apartheid and Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Vicky Stark meets some Ukrainians who fled the war in this report from Cape Town, South Africa.
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The extensive sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine one year ago have not led to the decimation of the Russian economy, as many experts had predicted. As recently as last fall, according to new polling data, many Russians actually believed they were better off economically than they had been before the war started.

According to data gathered by the Gallup organization, the share of Russians reporting they were satisfied with their standard of living increased by 15 percentage points, to 57% in 2022. For the first time in the poll’s history, satisfaction with living standards was above 50% in every region of the country.

The number of Russians reporting that their economic conditions were improving grew to 44% from 40%, while the number who said their economic prospects were declining plummeted to 29% from 50%.

Similarly, the percentage of Russians reporting that they were satisfied with the country’s leadership surged to 66%, up from 50% in 2021, while the share reporting that they were dissatisfied fell from just under half to only 21%.

The survey is part of Gallup’s expansive annual World Poll, which conducts large-scale polling in dozens of countries around the world every year. The poll of Russian citizens was taken between mid-August and early November of last year, and therefore cannot have captured any changes in attitudes since the fall. The survey involved in-person interviews with a random sample of 2,000 individuals ages 15 or older, living in Russia. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Surprising resilience

Recent data has demonstrated that the impact of international sanctions on Russia was not nearly as dramatic as the 10% contraction that many economists were foreseeing in 2022. The Russian economy contracted by a relatively mild 2.1% in 2022, and the International Monetary Fund has predicted that it will post small, but positive growth of 0.3% in 2023.

Russia began the war with a financial system braced for sanctions. The Russian central bank used currency controls and sharp interest rate hikes to stabilize the ruble early in the first year of the war. At the same time, Russian businesses began exploring deeper ties with countries such as China, India and Turkey, which allowed trade in goods and commodities to largely recover from initial dips at the outset of the conflict.

The biggest reason for Russia’s surprising resilience, however, was that it was allowed to continue selling petroleum products, far and away its largest source of pre-war revenue, on global markets. Prices were elevated at the outset of the fighting, and a slow move by many Western nations away from Russian oil and gas gave Russian firms time to broaden their sales to countries such as India and China.

In an address to the nation this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin touted the country’s economic performance.

“The Russian economy and system of governance proved to be much stronger than the West supposed,” he said. “Their calculation did not come to pass.”

‘Rally’ effect

Benedict Vigers, a consultant with Gallup, told VOA that the better-than-expected performance of the Russian economy may explain some of the economic optimism. However, a strong “rally-round-the-flag” effect is probably also in place.

When two countries go to war, there is a tendency for the people in both countries to demonstrate stronger affection for and satisfaction with their respective homelands, Vigers said.

“It is a well-known effect in Russia,” he said. “We have seen it historically, and it is happening now, in conjunction, to some degree, with Russia’s broader ability to evade some of the worst impacts of Western sanctions.”

He pointed out a similar spike in Russians reporting optimism about the economy and satisfaction with their government in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

Repression of dissent

Another factor potentially coloring the responses to the Gallup survey is the fact that the Russian government aggressively punishes public criticism of the government, and has done so with more frequency in the months since launching its invasion of Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Russian citizens have been arrested for protesting against the war.

Galina Zapryanova, Gallup’s regional director for Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, told VOA in an email that the company cannot rule out the possibility that fear of reprisal affects peoples’ answers to poll questions.

“It is certainly possible that some people would not give a truly honest answer on questions related to approval of government policies, etc. — they may give the ‘safest’ answer that they consider most appropriate,” she wrote.

“This is a risk in all survey research in countries that are not entirely free, but we need to try our best to obtain representative data, while keeping in mind that a portion of any trend could be due to self-censorship by respondents.”

However, she noted that on the question of how Russians feel about the future of the economy, 56% opted for a response other than the seemingly “safe” option of declaring themselves optimistic.

Economic data suppressed

Another potentially complicating factor is that since the invasion in February 2022, the Kremlin has significantly closed off access to economic data that used to be public information.

“As far as mass media is concerned, economic information just recently fell victim to censorship,” Vasily Gatov, a senior fellow at the University of Southern California Center on Communication Leadership and Policy, told VOA. “Until spring last year, the Kremlin literally didn’t control narratives and the way people were writing about the economy in general.”

Gatov, who studies Russian media, said that since then, the government has blocked access to many reports on economic activity, making it more difficult for journalists and academics to get a full picture of what is happening with the Russian economy.

However, Gatov said, while it may be possible for the Kremlin to control access to some information, much of people’s perception about the economy comes from their own lived experiences.

“People receive economic information from various sources, and not always media sources,” he said. “One of them is their bank account. Another is prices at the gas station or grocery store.”

Without addressing the Gallup findings specifically, Gatov said that in his view, Russians “read between the lines” of information coming from the Kremlin and Kremlin-controlled media sources.

He said that they see major international brands refusing to do business in their country and are experiencing infrequent but serious shortages such as an ongoing lack of Western-produced drugs like insulin. “Russians are skeptical about the economic future of the country.”
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Ukraine’s power grid has been a target of Russian attacks since mid-October. The United States now is in the process of sending a third round of assistance to help restore damaged infrastructure.

But the ultimate goal is to help Ukraine build a new “warproof” distributed power grid, said Jennifer Granholm, the U.S. secretary of Energy.

As Ukraine marks one year since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Secretary Granholm talked to VOA’s Iuliia Iarmolenko about the U.S. assistance, Ukrainian resilience, and a clean energy future.

This interview transcript has been edited for clarity and brevity.

VOA: It has been a year since Russia launched a full-scale war and it’s been at least four months since Russia started this campaign of brutal attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector. How do you assess the current situation with Ukraine’s energy grid?

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm: Well, I do know that the president — President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy — has really expressed a desire to have a different grid. A grid that is distributed, that has clean energy, but also that isn’t so centralized so that it becomes a target. And that is very encouraging, that’s something we very much want to work with Ukraine on and we have labs that are already … our national labs that are already preparing strategies to be able to get to that.

Ultimately you want to basically warproof an electric grid. What we have been doing is sending … We’ve been scanning for high-voltage equipment that would be compatible with Ukraine’s electric grid. It’s a Soviet-era grid, and so, therefore, it’s difficult for our transformers for example aren’t compatible. So, we’re canvassing around the world and all of our utilities to see what equipment can we send.

Where we are in the process now of sending the third tranche of equipment to Ukraine so that they can replace what has been damaged. But ultimately in the long term, what we need to do is to fulfill the president’s goals to get a distributed electric grid so that if one section is damaged, it doesn’t bring down a whole region.

VOA: You mentioned that Russia’s goal is to destroy energy grids, and — as some U.S. officials said — to freeze Ukrainians into submission. And it seems that the winter is almost over, and Russia seems to be failing to achieve at least this goal to freeze Ukrainians to submission. Does it give you some grounds for optimism and do you think that the darkest days are behind us?

Granholm: Well, I certainly hope so, and it definitely gives me grounds for optimism. It makes … you know, looking at how Ukraine, Ukrainian people have had steel injected into their spines … I mean they have spines of steel. And perhaps that makes us steel as well, our spines full of steel to be able to support such courage and determination to not give up their territory, to not give up their nation.

So I should say Russia’s goal is not just to destroy. It’s to take back, right? To take the land to take the country. And, you know, we’re not … We, the united members of this coalition, are not going to allow that to happen. And we want to support Ukraine and its territorial integrity. And the people have been so fierce in their determination to not allow their land to be taken.

VOA: Recently, Canadian Cameco Corporation announced a major uranium deal with Ukraine Energoatom and that should meet Ukraine’s nuclear fuel needs until 2035. How significant do you think this is? And was there any cooperation or coordination between the United States and Canada on this? I know you were talking about the transition to renewable energy. But right now, Ukraine still has many nuclear reactors?

Granholm: Absolutely. In the immediate, it’s really important to get power right and clean power is very important. Ukraine has been a leader in nuclear energy. Obviously, Zaporizhzhia is the biggest nuclear power plant in all of Europe. Moving into the future, I think a lot of the Central Eastern European countries are very interested in small modular reactors, next generation nuclear, as well as some of the bigger reactors as well. But they don’t want to be under the thumb of Russian reactors or Russian uranium.

And so, this is the, I think, the next generation of questions. We just saw an agreement with Poland for example, to be able to have a series of three reactors that are built in partnership with Westinghouse. We’ve got to make sure that those reactors are fed, but not by Russian uranium.

VOA: I want to come back to something that you mentioned at the beginning of our conversation: that Ukraine wants to change their power grid. And, of course, war is a tremendous tragedy, but it also creates some opportunity to build better and to build something new. How do you think the United States can help Ukraine with reconstruction efforts, and with efforts to actually build something better in the energy sector with new technology and to abandon the Soviet era technology?

Granholm: Yeah, we are very excited about the possibility of working with Ukraine. In fact, I’ve been working with minister [Herman] Haluschenko, who is my counterpart in Ukraine, energy minister, who is very interested in working with … our labs, for example the National Renewable Energy Lab, has been doing these roadmaps for countries that have expressed interest in going 100 percent renewable for example, 100 percent clean, zero carbon emitting. And we want to work with Ukraine on its desires to be able to do that to provide technical roadmaps on how to get there.

What’s the best way if you incorporate all of the assets that Ukraine has? How much solar, how much wind, how much hydroelectric power, how much nuclear power? What’s the mix that’s good for Ukraine and lives up to what Ukraine wants? We are very eager to partner on that future road map and on any assistance that we can to allow Ukraine to live up to its own ambition.

VOA: Given the current state of the power grid, do you think Ukraine still has potential?

Granholm: Totally, yes. … If you’re going to build back, let’s build back in a way that allows you to be resilient and to have energy security. And energy security, of course, through clean, which is exactly what President Zelenskyy has said he wants to do. And so, we stand totally ready and we’re working already on the plans with Ukraine so that once this is over, you can build that future for Ukraine and for Ukraine’s economy as well. But most importantly, for Ukraine’s own security to be energy independent.
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The U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly supported a resolution Thursday calling for “a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” as soon as possible in Ukraine, in line with the principles in the U.N. Charter.

In a vote of 141 in favor, seven against and 32 abstentions, nations supported the text submitted by Ukraine that underscored the importance of finding peace. It also reiterated the assembly’s demand that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders” and called for “a cessation of hostilities.”

“Today’s vote is another evidence that it is not only the West that supports Ukraine, the support is much broader, and it will only continue to be consolidated and to be solidified,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters after the vote.

The special emergency session of the U.N. General Assembly, which opened on Wednesday and continued into Thursday culminating with the vote, was called to mark the anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Kuleba appealed to the international community to stand by his country.

“We need to send a strong and clear message that the U.N. Charter, including the principles of sovereign equality and territorial integrity of states, should serve as the basis for the process of peaceful resolution,” Kuleba said during the debate.

“Today, we refuse to give up on hope. We refuse to give up on the potential of diplomacy, the power of dialogue and the urgency of peace,” U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in welcoming the result.

Seventy-five countries participated in the debate, including Russia.

Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia urged countries to vote against the draft resolution, saying it lacked substance and was “divorced from reality.” Moscow’s ally, Belarus, proposed two amendments to the text — one excluding the words “full scale invasion of Ukraine” and “aggression by the Russian Federation,” and the other calling for states to refrain from sending weapons to the conflict zone. But they were roundly voted down by the assembly.

Nebenzia insisted that Moscow is not obstructing peace.

“We are ready for a search for a serious and long-term diplomatic solution. We have stated this on many occasions,” he said. “Our opponents have not yet recovered from their futile illusions that they could defeat a nuclear power.”

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Russia had tried the entire week to distract and disrupt U.N. efforts.

“Once again, it has failed. We see that clearly in the vote,” he told reporters, flanked by many EU foreign ministers who had flown to New York for the meeting. “On the Russian side, there is a small handful of votes confirming that in the eyes of the world, the aggression against Ukraine needs to stop — and it needs to stop now and open the door to a just, sustainable and comprehensive peace.”

The countries that supported Russia’s position were those that have mostly stood by it since the start of the war last year: Belarus, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea and Syria.

There have been five other resolutions adopted in the U.N. General Assembly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all with strong support. China abstained on three of them and voted with Russia on resolutions calling for Moscow’s suspension from the U.N. Human Rights Council and for Moscow to pay reparations to Ukraine. On Thursday, China abstained again.

Days after NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that Beijing may be considering providing arms to Russia, China’s envoy urged countries not to arm the combatants.

“One year into the Ukraine crisis, brutal facts have offered ample proofs that sending weapons will not bring peace,” Deputy Ambassador Dai Bing said during the debate. “Adding fuel to the fire will only exacerbate tensions. Prolonging and expanding the conflict will only make ordinary people pay an even heftier price.”

Asked about it by a reporter, Kuleba said it would be a huge mistake for any country to provide Russia with weapons.

“Because by providing Russia with weapons, that country helps aggression and blatant violation of the U.N. Charter,” Kuleba said. “As of now, China has been standing in defense of the charter and especially the principle of territorial integrity.”

China’s top diplomat was in Moscow this week, fueling speculation that the two allies are discussing a Chinese peace proposal.

“China will soon issue a position paper on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis,” Dai told the General Assembly. Some reports speculate it could come as early as Friday.

On Friday, the anniversary of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, the U.N. Security Council will meet. One year ago, members were in a session trying to prevent the outbreak of hostilities when word came that Russian troops had moved across the border into Ukraine.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine one year ago has sparked a long-term transformation across European defenses, a top U.S. general told VOA, as the Pentagon warns that Moscow has “already lost” its fight to control Ukraine.

“The security environment here in Europe has been changed for decades,” Lieutenant General John Kolasheski, commander general of V Corps who is responsible for U.S. Army operations along NATO’s eastern flank, said in an exclusive interview in Poland earlier this month.

As Russia’s war efforts took shape, the United States poured thousands of additional troops into Europe while European nations close to the conflict ramped up defense spending.

“This is something that all of our allies and partners take as a real threat, and the cohesion here has been greater than I’ve ever seen,” he said.

Washington has spent tens of billions of dollars on military support for Ukraine, as has the rest of NATO combined.

Estonia and Latvia, which border Russia, have spent at least 1% of their GDPs on Ukrainian aid. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told VOA that Estonia’s self-defense expenditure had increased to 2.8% this year and would reach 3.2% of GDP next year.

“We have a clear understanding that every tank destroyed in Ukraine is one tank less behind our border,” he said.

However, polls have shown American public support for providing weapons to Ukraine has dipped from 60% in favor last May, to 48% now. There’s also been a modest erosion in congressional support for Ukrainian war spending.

Most of that erosion comes from “a vocal minority of Republicans,” according to Bradley Bowman, a veteran who is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

U.S. security spending for Ukraine is about $30 billion, which Bowman said is about 3.5% of the entire defense budget this fiscal year.

“So, what are we getting for that 3.5%? I would say that we’re preventing Russian President [Vladimir] Putin from accomplishing many of his objectives in Ukraine. We’re sending a very important message around the world that America is not neutral and will not sit on its hands when an autocratic bully tries to redraw international borders with military force … without a single American soldier in harm’s way,” he told VOA on Thursday.

Russia had controlled as much as 25% of Ukraine last year before Kyiv’s forces quickly waged a counterattack.

Now, Russian-controlled territory has been whittled to 18%, with Western officials and former officials hoping that Ukraine will be able to punch through hardened Russian defenses as new advanced weaponry arrives in Ukraine, including German-made Leopard 2 tanks and British-made Challenger 2 tanks.

“The battles in Ukraine will be slow, and what you need is, you need a heavy tank like Challenger that can take a hit,” said Major Nick Bridges, the U.K. chief of staff of Estonia’s Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup. He added that these tanks can sustain multiple attacks, while the Soviet-era T-72 tanks that Ukrainians forces currently use “will probably be destroyed after one round.”

As Russia has shown signs of a fresh offensive in Ukraine, U.S. officials have described Moscow’s tactics as akin to “tossing bodies into a meat grinder.”

“I kind of call it the ‘Bakhmutization’ of the conflict, where they are literally throwing hundreds of lives away every single day to make incremental gains that are not strategically important,” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, referring to the brutal fighting for Bakhmut, where deadly battles resulted in a tug-of-war exchange of small blocks of territory.

Kahl, speaking to VOA at the Pentagon this week, said the point of sending weapons like Western tanks to Ukraine is to allow it to “fight differently” than the Russians in order to “change the dynamics of the front lines.”

He said Putin has repeatedly miscalculated over the past year, resulting in a failure to achieve Russian objectives ranging from absorbing Ukraine into the Russian empire to weakening the NATO alliance.

“One thing has actually become crystal clear, and that is Russia has already lost,” Kahl said.
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