Month: January 2022

Portuguese voters go to the polls Sunday, two years earlier than scheduled, after a political crisis over a blocked spending bill brought down the minority Socialist government and triggered a snap election.

The Socialist Party has been in power since 2015, with Portugal one of only a half-dozen European countries having a left-of-center government. It faces a strong challenge from the center-right Social Democratic Party, its traditional rival.

Some 10.8 million voters are eligible to choose 230 lawmakers in the Republican Assembly, Portugal’s parliament, where political parties then decide who forms a government.

Here’s a look at what’s happening:

Why have an early election? Parliament last November rejected the Socialist government’s spending plan for 2022.

In previous years, the Socialists had relied on the support of their left-of-center sympathizers in parliament — the Left Bloc and the Portuguese Communist Party — to ensure the state budget had enough votes to pass.

But this time their differences, especially over health spending and workers’ rights, were too hard to bridge, and Socialist Prime Minister António Costa was left short of votes to pass his party’s plan.

Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, said the 2022 budget is “crucial,” because it needs to relaunch the economy after the pandemic. He called a snap election so the Portuguese can decide what path the country should take.

What’s at stake? Portugal is poised to begin deploying some $50 billion of aid from the European Union to help fire up the economy post-pandemic.

Two-thirds of that sum is meant for public projects, such as major infrastructure, giving the next government a huge windfall to spend. The rest is to help selected private sector projects.

The 2022 state budget forecast GDP growth of 5.5% this year, one of the highest among countries that use the euro currency, with a jobless rate of around 6.5% — roughly the same as now.

The new government will be sworn in for a four-year term.

What are the choices? The Socialist Party is promising to increase the minimum monthly salary, earned by more than 800,000 people, to $1,021 by 2026. It is currently $800. Low wages are a common grievance among voters.

The Socialists also want to “start a national conversation” about cutting the working week to four days, from five.

The Social Democratic Party is promising income tax cuts and more help for private companies. Party leader Rui Rio wants to cut corporate tax from the current 21% to 17% by 2024.

Those two parties traditionally collect around 70% of the vote.

The Portuguese Communist Party and the Left Bloc are potential allies for the Socialists. The conservative Popular Party has in the past allied with the Social Democratic Party.

Several other smaller parties are presenting candidates nationwide and could become kingmakers by supporting a minority government.

They range from the populist Chega! (Enough!), which opposes large-scale immigration and demands more support for the police, to the People-Animals-Nature party which wants tougher animal welfare protection and tighter environmental controls.

Who’s favored to win? Opinion polls suggest a close race between the Socialists and Social Democrats. That likely means the ballot will produce another vulnerable minority government and a rocky period of horse-trading for parliamentary votes before a budget can be passed.

The Socialists, smarting from the collapse of their outgoing government, say they no longer trust their allies on the left.

The Social Democrats, meanwhile, may have to address a surge in support for the Chega! populists, whose policies they find distasteful.

Has the pandemic affected the ballot? More than a million eligible voters could be in home confinement on election day, authorities say, and officials have struggled to reconcile the constitutional right to vote with their duty to protect public health.

The highly contagious omicron variant has brought record daily infections of over 50,000 recently, compared with fewer than 1,000 in November. Portugal’s high vaccination rate of 89% of the population has largely safeguarded the health system, officials say.

The main parties shunned their traditional flag-waving campaign rallies to avoid large gatherings. Party leaders attended 36 live television debates in the first half of January — many more than usual.

Thousands of poll workers got a booster shot ahead of the ballot.

Early voting possibilities were extended, and infected people are exceptionally allowed to leave isolation to vote, with the government recommending they cast their ballot in the slower evening period.
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Many in Taiwan do not see parallels between Russia’s threats against Ukraine and their situation with China. Instead, much of the concern in Taiwan has focused on whether their closest ally, the United States, would become distracted by Europe or act in bad faith toward Ukraine — hinting at how Taiwan might be treated one day.

“I think people in Taiwan, or people that I am closest to, they haven’t expressed any concerns regarding the issues of a Russian possible invasion in Ukraine. They have mentioned briefly saying that the crisis in Europe is worsening, but they’ve kept it quite vague,” said Daniel Ha, who helps manage a co-working space in Taipei.

“I think people are always concerned about [whether] China could use this opportunity to flex its muscles again or move forward with their plans of unifying Taiwan,” he said. “I personally am concerned that it would be a big distraction if the West began a full-blown invasion trying to protect Ukraine. Taiwan could easily be sidelined.”

Syrena Lin, who works at a headhunting firm in Taipei, told VOA that while she was following the conflict in Ukraine, she had also not found much discussion of it in her daily life.

“I don’t think Taiwanese people are really treating this as a big deal, especially as I have a lot of friends in politics and I don’t really see any discussion among them,” Lin said.

“I am interested in this issue, and I care about how it’s going because the U.S. and China are both involved in it,” she added. “I think China is watching how the U.S. is reacting to military offensives and maybe China will take it as an example to how the U.S. would react when China really [attacks] Taiwan one day.”

Taiwan’s government has expressed similar sympathetic but measured views about Ukraine. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Joanne Ou said in a statement that Taiwan was “concerned about the current situation of Russia-Ukraine relations” and called for dialogue as soon as possible.

One reason for the relative distance may be that many Taiwanese — including young professionals like Ha — see more distance between themselves and China than between Russia and Ukraine, who were united for much of modern history by the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.

“Communist China has never ruled Taiwan officially or ever,” Ha told VOA, adding that the last time Beijing direct controlled Taiwan was in the 19th century.

“It was Qing dynasty that predated the Japanese colonial period so if you’re talking about historical facts, the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have a right to claim Taiwan,” he said.

Ha said some Taiwanese may disagree with his view, particularly those who are descended from Chinese emigres to Taiwan in the 1950s after the end of the Chinese revolution, but their numbers are also waning with demographic shifts and the rise in Taiwanese nationalism among young people.

His feeling were shared by other Taiwanese, such as Kuan-ting Chen, CEO of the think tank Taiwan NextGen Foundation, who also found Ukraine and Taiwan to be a “false comparison” because of vastly different historic and logistical factors.

Chen said there are few geographic obstacles for Russia to invade Ukraine, but Taiwan has notoriously difficult geographical defenses like the 130-kilometer Taiwan Strait that would be a “nightmare” for China — at least for the next few years until the People’s Liberation Army completes a major modernization program.

China and Taiwan have had three close calls in the past that could have led to military conflict, although the last time China came close to landing on Taiwanese soil was in the 1950s. The most recent conflict was in 1996 when China fired missiles in the direction of Taiwan, but since then it has focused primarily on “grey zone” tactics such as flying military planes in the direction of Taiwan to erode morale.

For those who are closely watching the conflict in Ukraine, most of their focus has instead been on how the U.S. will respond, said Kwei-Bo Huang, an associate professor in diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in September raised uncomfortable questions in Taiwan about whether Washington might abandon another long-time ally, and the Ukraine conflict could resurrect many of these concerns.

“I can sense that in Taiwan, those having some knowledge of the Ukraine-Russia case are waiting to see whether the U.S. will fulfil its commitment to Ukraine and make more direct and strong responses to Russia’s threat of use of force. If the U.S. doesn’t do so, then the U.S. commitment to Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act will be doubted (again) by many in Taiwan,” he said by email, citing a major piece of U.S. legislation.

In the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act the U.S. has pledged to help Taiwan to defend itself against an attack but that does not guarantee that it will provide military assistance.

Many Taiwanese are also aware that while the U.S. and Taiwan have recently grown closer under the presidencies of Donald Trump and now Joe Biden, U.S. interest in the East Asian democracy has fluctuated over the decades. 

 
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In a break from the past, the U.S. and its allies are increasingly revealing their intelligence findings as they confront Russian preparations for invading Ukraine, looking to undercut Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans by exposing them and deflecting his efforts to shape world opinion.

The White House in recent weeks publicized what it said was a developing Russian “false-flag” operation to create pretext for an invasion. Britain named specific Ukrainians it accused of having ties to Russian intelligence officers plotting to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The U.S. also released a map of Russian military positions and detailed how officials believe Russia will try to attack Ukraine with as many as 175,000 troops.

Experts credit the White House for declassifying intelligence and moving to rebut false claims before they’re made — a so-called “prebuttal” that undercuts their effectiveness better than an after-the-fact explanation.

But the release of information isn’t without risks. Intelligence assessments carry varying degrees of certainty, and beyond offering photos of troop movements, the U.S. and its allies have provided little other proof. Moscow has dismissed Washington’s claims as hysteria and invoked past American intelligence failures, including false information put forward about Iraq’s weapons programs.

There are no clear signs of change so far from Russia, which continues to move forces toward Ukraine and into Belarus, an ally to Ukraine’s north. There is growing pessimism in Washington and London about ongoing diplomatic efforts and a belief that Putin will likely mount some sort of invasion in the next several weeks.

Russia is known for using disinformation as a tactic to sow confusion and discord as part of its overall conflict strategy. When Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, it mounted a campaign to sway ethnic Russian residents of the territory. State media and social media accounts linked to Russia promoted allegations that the West was manipulating protests in Kyiv and false or unconfirmed tales of lurid crimes committed by Ukrainian forces.

This time, the U.S. says, Russia is trying to portray Ukrainian leaders as aggressors and to persuade its own citizens to support military action. At the same time, the U.S. and its allies allege, Russia has positioned operatives in eastern Ukraine who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces and then blame Kyiv.

The White House has repeatedly highlighted what it sees as disinformation and is privately sharing additional intelligence with allies including Ukraine. The State Department recently published a fact sheet listing and rejecting several Russian claims. And the Treasury Department sanctioned four men accused of ties to influence operations intended to set the pretext in Ukraine for a new invasion.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki described a “strategic decision to call out disinformation when we see it.”

“We are much more cognizant of the Russian disinformation machine than we were in 2014,” she said Wednesday, adding, “We need to be very clear with the global community and the U.S. public what they’re trying to do and why.”

Moscow continues to make demands that NATO not accept Ukraine or further expand to any other countries. And after British intelligence accused him of being a possible Russia-backed candidate for president, Ukrainian politician Yevheniy Murayev denied the claim and told the AP that it “looks ridiculous and funny.”

Meanwhile, Washington and Moscow go back and forth online. Kremlin-backed RT.com on Dec. 21 posted a video alleging “US private military companies are amassing CHEMICAL COMPONENTS in Eastern Ukraine.” The State Department rejected that claim in its fact sheet on Russian propaganda. Russia’s Foreign Ministry then responded with tweets “debunking @StateDept ‘facts’ on Russian disinformation on Ukraine.”

Washington’s efforts have raised questions in Kyiv, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has taken a different public approach of trying to tamp down public fears of an expanded war even as many Ukrainians prepare for possible combat.

Ukrainian officials privately question why the Biden administration is warning about an impending invasion but not imposing preemptive sanctions or taking action against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which has been criticized for giving Moscow more leverage over Ukraine and Western Europe. The Biden administration lobbied Democrats in Congress to oppose a Republican-sponsored bill that would have required the imposition of sanctions against the pipeline, which has not yet gone into operation.

The White House has threatened tough sanctions if Russia does invade and is preparing to move forces to NATO’s eastern flank in the event of an invasion. The U.S. and Western allies are also sending weapons and missile systems to Ukraine.

Molly McKew, a writer and lecturer on Russian influence, said the administration’s moves to counter Russia’s influence efforts needed to be accompanied by a clearer statement of American goals and plans to repel any invasion.

Publicly identifying Russia’s actions alone will not stop Russia from carrying them out, said McKew, a former adviser to President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia, which fought a war in 2008 with Russia and still is trying to regain control of separatist regions backed by Moscow.

“They’re trying to apply disinformation thinking to military domains,” she said. “You absolutely cannot expose away the crisis.”

In both the U.S. and Ukraine, experts say, there is far more societal awareness now of state-sponsored disinformation. Russia in the past several years has continued to bombard Ukrainians with text messages and false stories during the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine in which at least 14,000 people have died. And Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election led to several investigations and years of often fractious debates.

Bret Schafer, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, said that while there are risks to elevating false claims in the process of debunking them, “there is a need to head off information threats as opposed to responding to them after they’ve been let out into the wild.”

But publicly accusing Russia of misbehavior is ultimately a limited deterrent. “They don’t care about reputational damage,” he said.
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The most senior U.S. military officer warns Russia will end up blazing a path of death and devastation, for all sides, should it decide to resolve its differences with Ukraine by using military force. 

U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley issued the blunt admonishment Friday during a rare news conference at the Pentagon with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, where both men insisted tragedy could be avoided if Moscow was willing to pull back from the brink. 

“Given the type of forces that are arrayed, the ground maneuver forces, the artillery, the ballistic missiles, the air forces, all of it packaged together, if that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant,” Milley told reporters. 

“It would result in a significant amount of casualties. And you can imagine what that might look like in dense urban areas,” he said. “It would be horrific. It would be terrible. And it’s not necessary.” 

The U.S. warning Friday comes as the standoff between Russia and Ukraine appears to have reached a tipping point.

Later Friday, President Joe Biden told reporters he would add U.S. troops to the NATO presence in Eastern Europe.

“I’ll be moving troops to Eastern Europe and the NATO countries in the near term. Not too many,” Biden said upon return to Washington from a speech in Pennsylvania.

Putin’s call with Macron 

Senior U.S. defense officials cautioned that Russia had amassed sufficient firepower to launch a full-scale invasion at any time, while Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron that the West had failed to adequately address Moscow’s security concerns. 

Putin, according to the Kremlin, told Macron that the most recent Western diplomatic responses did not consider Russia’s concerns about NATO expansion such as stopping the deployment of alliance weapons near Russia’s border and rolling back its forces from Eastern Europe.  

Separately, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian radio stations Friday that Russia did not want war with Ukraine but that it would protect its interests against the West if necessary.   

“If it depends on Russia, then there will be no war. We don’t want wars,” Lavrov said. “But we also won’t allow our interests to be rudely trampled, to be ignored.”   

Escalating tensions and rhetoric 

But the U.S. defense secretary pushed back, telling Pentagon reporters Friday that no one has done anything to lead Russia to encircle Ukraine with more than 100,000 troops. 

“There was no provocation that caused them to move those forces,” Austin said Friday at the Pentagon, calling out Moscow for a new wave of disinformation campaigns.

“Indeed, we’re seeing Russian state media spouting off now about alleged activities in eastern Ukraine,” he said. “This is straight out of the Russian playbook. And they’re not fooling us.” 

Austin also painted Moscow’s saber-rattling as counterproductive. 

“A move on Ukraine will accomplish the very thing Russia says it does not want — a NATO alliance strengthened and resolved on its western flank,” he said. 

But with no sign of give from any side — U.S. and NATO officials have repeatedly rejected Russia’s demands — there are growing concerns that fear or hysteria could spread, making an already fragile situation more perilous. 

“We don’t need this panic,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told a news conference in Kyiv on Friday, accusing U.S. leaders of talking up the possibility of conflict.

“Are tanks driving here on our streets? No. But it feels like this (reading the media),” he said. “In my opinion, this is a mistake. Because those are signals of how the world reacts.”

Despite the disagreement over rhetoric, U.S. and European officials said they continue to hold out hope that diplomacy can prevail. 

One senior U.S. administration official, talking to reporters on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss developments, said remarks like those Friday by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov are a positive sign. 

“We welcome the message,” the official said. “We need to see it backed up by swift action.” 

The official added that Monday’s United Nations Security Council meeting on Ukraine will be “an opportunity for Russia to explain what it is doing, and we’ve come prepared to listen.” 

Ramping up military preparations 

While Russia and the U.S. and its allies have spent much of the past week trading demands, both sides have also ramped up military preparations.

Russia has launched military drills involving motorized infantry and artillery units in southwestern Russia, warplanes in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, dozens of warships in the Black Sea and the Arctic, and Russian fighter jets and paratroopers in Belarus.   

Ukraine’s military held artillery and anti-aircraft drills in the country’s southern Kherson region Friday near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea.

And the U.S., which has been providing Kyiv with anti-tank missiles, grenade launchers, artillery and ammunition, said another shipment arrived Friday to help bolster Ukrainian defenses. 

Also Friday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the military alliance has already bolstered its troop presence in Eastern Europe and continues to watch Russia’s military movements, including the positioning of aircraft and S-400 anti-aircraft systems in Belarus, closely. 

“The aim now is to try to reduce tensions,” Stoltenberg said, speaking online from Brussels at a Washington think-tank event. 

“We urge Russia, we call on Russia to engage in talks,” he said, adding that opting for the use of force will not work out well for Moscow.

“When it comes to Ukraine, I am absolutely certain that Russia understands they will have to pay a high price (for invading),” Stoltenberg said. “I am certain President Putin and Russia takes NATO very serious when it comes to our ability to protect and defend all allies.” 

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.  
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European allies agreed on Friday to draw up plans within two weeks for how to continue their fight against Islamist militants in Mali, Denmark’s defense minister said, after France said the situation with the Malian junta had become untenable.

Tensions have escalated between Mali and its international partners since the junta failed to organize an election following two military coups.

It has also deployed Russian private military contractors, which some European countries have said is incompatible with their mission.

“There was a clear perception that this is not about Denmark. It’s about a Malian military junta which wants to stay in power. They have no interest in a democratic election, which is what we have demanded,” Danish Defense Minister Trine Bramsen told Reuters.

Speaking after a virtual meeting of the 15 countries involved in the European special forces Takuba task mission, she said the parties had agreed to come up with a plan within 14 days to decide on what the “future counterterrorism mission should look like in the Sahel region.”

The ministers held talks after the junta had insisted on the immediate withdrawal of Danish forces despite the 15 nations’ rejecting its claims that Copenhagen’s presence was illegal.

“European, French and international forces are seeing measures that are restricting them. Given the situation, given the rupture in the political and military frameworks, we cannot continue like this,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told RTL radio earlier in the day, adding that the junta was out of control.

He said the Europeans needed to think about how to adapt their operations.

‘Full of contempt’

Speaking to France 24 TV, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said that Le Drian’s comments were “full of contempt” and Paris needed to act less aggressively and respect Mali.

“France’s attitude needs to change. … We are reviewing several defense accords and treaties to ensure they don’t violate Mali’s sovereignty. If that’s not the case, we will not hesitate to ask for adjustments.” 

He said that Paris welcomed military coups “when they served its interests,” referring to a coup in neighboring Chad that has drawn little resistance from France.

The junta’s handling of Denmark is likely to affect future deployments, with Norway, Hungary, Portugal, Romania and Lithuania due to send troops this year. It raises questions about the broader future of French operations in Mali, where there are 4,000 troops. Paris had staked a great deal on bringing European states to the region.

Colonel Arnaud Mettey, commander of France’s forces in Ivory Coast, which backs up Sahel operations, told Reuters that the junta had no right to refuse Denmark’s presence given agreed treaties.

“Either they are rejecting this treaty and so put into question our presence, or they apply it,” he said. “France and the European Union will not disengage from the Sahel. Takuba will carry on.”

Diop said the departure of French troops was not on the table for now.

However, Denis Tull, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Paris may ultimately not be left with a choice.

“If this confrontation continues, there probably will simply be no political context in which the French transformation agenda for [France’s counterterrorism force] Barkhane can be applied and implemented as planned,” he said.
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Editor’s note: Here is a fast take on what the international community has been up to this past week, as seen from the United Nations perch. 

UN chief: We cannot abandon the Afghan people 

The U.N. secretary-general warned on Wednesday that Afghanistan is “hanging by a thread,” as the organization appealed for a total of $8 billion to scale up humanitarian assistance to more than 22 million Afghans this year. 

UN Chief: Afghanistan ‘Hanging by a Thread’ 

Norway hosts talks between Taliban and Afghan civil society

Norway hosted three days of talks in Oslo between a Taliban delegation and members of Afghan civil society. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said at the U.N. this week that the meeting did not confer recognition or legitimacy on the Taliban but was “a first step” in dealing with the de facto Afghan authorities to prevent a humanitarian disaster in that country. 

Norway Defends Hosting Talks with Afghan Taliban 

Military coup in Burkina Faso

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern about the January 23 military coup in the West African nation of Burkina Faso that deposed President Roch Marc Christian Kabore and his government. Guterres said the role of militaries must be to defend their countries and people, not attack their governments and fight for power. 

The secretary-general’s special representative for West Africa and the Sahel, Mahamat Saleh Annadif, will travel to Burkina Faso this weekend on a good offices mission. 

West African Nations See String of Coups 

In brief

A U.N. team of experts arrived in Lima, Peru, on January 24 to assess the social and environmental impacts of an oil spill linked to the underwater volcanic eruption that triggered a tsunami in the Pacific island nation of Tonga. The team is specialized in contamination assessment and will advise authorities on how to manage and coordinate their response. 

Some good news

World Health Organization chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a meeting of the agency’s executive board on January 24 that if countries change the conditions driving the spread of coronavirus infections, it is possible to end the acute phase of the global pandemic this year. That includes vaccinating 70% of their populations, monitoring the emergence of new variants and boosting testing. 

A small but important glimmer of hope in Libya: the U.N. political chief told the Security Council on January 24 that the overall humanitarian situation improved in 2021. Rosemary DiCarlo said the U.N. recorded a 36% decrease in the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance, from 1.3 million at the start of 2021 to 803,000 by the end of the year. Additionally, about 100,000 of the more than quarter million displaced Libyans returned home last year. 

Quote of note

“Were we to observe a minute of silence for each victim, that silence would last more than eleven years.” 

— U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, addressing a virtual U.N. memorial ceremony marking the International Day for Holocaust remembrance on January 27. 

What we are watching next week

On January 31, the U.N. Security Council will hold an open meeting to discuss tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The meeting was requested by the United States, and Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters, “This is just one more step in our diplomatic approach to bring the Russians to de-escalate and look for an opportunity to move forward.” The meeting will take place one day before Russia assumes the rotating presidency of the 15-nation council for the month of February. 

Did you know? 

The ancient Greek tradition of an Olympic truce goes into effect on January 28. It starts seven days before this year’s Winter Olympics open in Beijing and continues for a week after the close of the Paralympic Games. The U.N. General Assembly endorsed the truce during a meeting on January 20. The U.N. secretary-general is headed to Beijing for the opening ceremony on February 4. 

 
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Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine has expanded to include supplies of blood along with other medical materials that would allow it to treat casualties, in yet another key indicator of Moscow’s military readiness, three U.S. officials tell Reuters.

Current and former U.S. officials say concrete indicators — like blood supplies — are critical in determining whether Moscow would be prepared to carry out an invasion, if Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to do so.

The disclosure of the blood supplies by U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, adds another piece of context to growing U.S. warnings that Russia could be preparing for a new invasion of Ukraine as it masses more than 100,000 troops near its borders.

These warnings have included President Joe Biden’s prediction that a Russian assault was likely and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks that Russia could launch a new attack on Ukraine at “very short notice.”

The Pentagon has previously acknowledged the deployment of “medical support” as part of Russia’s buildup. But the disclosure of blood supplies adds a level of detail that experts say is critical to determining Russian military readiness.

“It doesn’t guarantee that there’s going to be another attack, but you would not execute another attack unless you have that in hand,” said Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. lieutenant general now with the Center for European Policy Analysis research institute.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.

A White House spokesperson did not immediately comment on any Russian movement of blood supplies but noted repeated public U.S. warnings about Russian military readiness.

The Pentagon declined to discuss intelligence assessments. The three U.S. officials who spoke about the blood supplies declined to say specifically when the United States detected their movement to formations near Ukraine. However, two of them said it was within recent weeks.

Russian officials have repeatedly denied planning to invade. But Moscow says it feels menaced by Kyiv’s growing ties with the West.

Eight years ago, Russia seized Crimea and backed separatist forces who took control of large parts of eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s security demands, presented in December, include an end to further NATO enlargement, barring Ukraine from ever joining and pulling back the alliance’s forces and weaponry from eastern European countries that joined after the Cold War.

Putin said Friday the United States and NATO had not addressed Russia’s main security demands in their standoff over Ukraine, but that Moscow was ready to keep talking.

Biden has said he will not send U.S. or allied troops to fight Russia in Ukraine but told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a phone call Thursday that Washington and its allies stand ready to respond decisively if Russia invades the former Soviet state, the White House said.

The United States and its allies have said Russia will face tough economic sanctions if it attacks Ukraine.

Western countries already have imposed repeated rounds of economic sanctions since Russian troops seized and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014.

But such moves have had scant impact on Russian policy, with Moscow, Europe’s main energy supplier, calculating that the West would stop short of steps serious enough to interfere with gas exports.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday the United States and NATO have not addressed Moscow’s concerns in its standoff with Ukraine.

The Kremlin said Putin made the remarks in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, contending Western diplomatic responses did not consider Russia’s concerns about NATO expansion, stopping the deployment of alliance weapons near Russia’s border and rolling back its forces from Eastern Europe.

U.S. and NATO officials have rejected those demands but have outlined areas where dialogue is possible.

The Kremlin said Putin told Macron he would further study the responses this week before deciding on next steps.

“The key question was ignored: how the United States and its allies intend to follow the principle of security integrity … that no one should strengthen their security at the expense of another country’s security,” the Kremlin said. 

A French presidency official said that during Friday’s call with Macron, Putin called for de-escalation, comments echoed by Russia’s top diplomat.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia does not want war with Ukraine but that it will protect its security interests against the West if necessary. 

Lavrov’s comments came in an interview Friday with Russian radio stations one day after U.S. President Joe Biden warned of a “distinct possibility” that Russia could invade Ukraine in coming days.

“If it depends on Russia, then there will be no war. We don’t want wars,” Lavrov said. “But we also won’t allow our interests to be rudely trampled, to be ignored.”  

U.S. President Joe Biden warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a White House statement Thursday that Russia could invade Ukraine next month.

“President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February,” Emily Horne, the White House National Security Council spokesperson said. “He has said this publicly and we have been warning about this for months.” 

Ukraine’s president sought to play down those fears, warning the talk of war was having a detrimental effect on his country’s economy.

“We don’t need this panic,” Zelenskiy told a news conference in Kyiv on Friday.

In talks between Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Geneva last week, the two committed to put their countries’ concerns and responses to them in writing for further discussion, along with NATO’s.  

Blinken said Thursday the document the U.S. handed Russia “includes concerns of the United States and our allies and partners about Russia’s actions that undermine security — a principled and pragmatic evaluation of the concerns that Russia has raised, and our own proposals for areas where we may be able to find common ground.”

The U.S. has called for a meeting Monday of the United Nations Security Council on Ukraine.

“More than 100,000 Russian troops are deployed on the Ukrainian border and Russia is engaging in other destabilizing acts aimed at Ukraine, posing a clear threat to international peace and security and the U.N. Charter,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Thursday in a statement.  “This is not a moment to wait and see. The Council’s full attention is needed now, and we look forward to direct and purposeful discussion on Monday.”

Russia is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council and therefore has veto power over any resolution.

Russia’s military buildup along Ukraine’s border has reached the point that Putin now has a full range of military options, including some short of a full-scale invasion, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday.

“While we don’t believe that President Putin has made a final decision to use these forces against Ukraine, he clearly now has the capability,” Austin said at a Pentagon news conference.

Austin said Putin has the capability to seize Ukranian cities and “significant territories” in the country with some of the 100,000 troops at the border. Austin also warned Russia could use “coercive acts or provocative political acts,” such as recognizing breakaway territories inside Ukraine. 

The U.S. and its European allies, fearing an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, continue to protest Russia’s massing of troops along the borders of the onetime Soviet republic, although Moscow says it has no intention of attacking.

Biden, while ruling out sending U.S. troops to Ukraine, repeatedly has warned Russia that the West will impose crippling economic sanctions against it if it crosses the border and attacks Ukraine.

While Russia and the U.S. and its allies trade demands, both sides have ramped up military preparations. Russia has launched military drills involving motorized infantry and artillery units in southwestern Russia, warplanes in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, dozens of warships in the Black Sea and the Arctic, and Russian fighter jets and paratroopers in Belarus.

On Friday, Ukraine’s military held artillery and anti-aircraft drills in the country’s southern Kherson region near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the military alliance was ready to bolster its troop presence in Eastern Europe.

Stoltenberg, speaking online from Brussels at a Washington think tank event, also said NATO was closely monitoring Russia’s movements of thousands of troops, aircraft and S-400 anti-aircraft systems into Belarus. 

“From the NATO side we are ready to engage in political dialogue,” Stoltenberg declared. “But we’re also ready to respond if Russia chooses an armed conflict confrontation.” He added that NATO is “not planning to deploy combat-ready troops to Ukraine.”

NATO said earlier this week that it was boosting its presence in the Baltic Sea region, and the U.S. has put 8,500 troops on heightened alert for deployment to Europe as part of a NATO operation.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
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Germany’s health minister said Friday the omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is “well under control” in the nation, even though he said he expects the number of daily cases to double to nearly 400,000 cases before it begins to drop. 

Speaking at a news conference Friday in Berlin, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach explained that while the wave of infections itself cannot be controlled, the consequences can be minimized by taking the proper steps.

He said he expects daily cases to double to nearly 400,000 cases by mid-February, but he then expects them to drop, probably by the end of next month.

Cases are currently rising, with the country’s Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases, or RKI, reporting 190,148 new cases as of Friday. Speaking at the same news briefing, RKI President Lothar Wieler said about 890,000 new cases were reported – nearly “1 percent of the entire population in just one week.” 

The RKI reports the infection rate per 100,000 people, as of Friday, was 1,073. 

Lauterbach says the government’s goal is to get through the wave with as few elderly people falling ill and as few deaths as possible, and he says so far, they are succeeding.

The health minister sought to dissuade people of the notion that just because the omicron variant is believed to be less severe, that vaccinations were not needed, saying that is wrong and not helpful. He encouraged everyone to get vaccinated and all those eligible to get booster shots. 

Some information for this report was provided by the Associated Press and Reuters.

 
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Pope Francis denounced fake news about COVID-19 and vaccines Friday, blasting the “distortion of reality based on fear” but also urging that people who believe such lies are helped to understand true scientific facts.

Francis met with Catholic journalists who have formed a fact-checking network to try to combat misinformation about the pandemic. Francis has frequently called for responsible journalism that searches for the truth and respects individuals, and his meeting with the “Catholic fact-checking” media consortium furthered that message.

“We can hardly fail to see that these days, in addition to the pandemic, an ‘infodemic’ is spreading: a distortion of reality based on fear, which in our global society leads to an explosion of commentary on falsified if not invented news,” Francis said.

He said access to accurate information, based on scientific data, is a human right that must be especially guaranteed for those who are less equipped to separate out the morass of misinformation and commentary masquerading as fact that is available online.

At the same time, Francis asked for a merciful, missionary approach to those who fall prey to such distortions so they are helped to understand the truth.

“Fake news has to be refuted, but individual persons must always be respected, for they believe it often without full awareness or responsibility,” he said. “Reality is always more complex than we think and we must respect the doubts, the concerns and the questions that people raise, seeking to accompany them without ever dismissing them.”

Some Catholics, including some conservative U.S. bishops and cardinals, have claimed that vaccines based on research that used cells derived from aborted fetuses were immoral, and have refused to get the jabs.

The Vatican’s doctrine office, however, has said it is “morally acceptable” for Catholics to receive COVID-19 vaccines, including those based on research that used cells derived from aborted fetuses. Francis and Emeritus Pope Benedict XVI have both been fully vaccinated with Pfizer-BioNTech shots.

Francis has been one of the most vocal religious leaders speaking out in favor of vaccines and respect for measures to fight the pandemic. He has implied that people have a “moral obligation” to ensure the health care of themselves and others, and the Vatican recently required all staff to either be vaccinated or show proof of having had COVID-19 to access their workplaces.
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Some supporters of Burkina Faso’s military coup this week were seen celebrating with Russian flags and calling for their country to switch alliances from France to Moscow. While the extent of pro-Russia sentiment in Burkina Faso is unclear, there is no doubt many are fed up with French efforts to help fight gangs and Islamist militant groups.

Riding through the streets of Ouagadougou on Tuesday, two demonstrators flew a Russian flag, celebrating a military coup in the country a day earlier.

They also turned out in Ouagadougou’s Place de la Nation to celebrate the military takeover.

“No, we don’t want no more France,” one demonstrator told VOA. “We are here because we want the defense of Russia. France hasn’t done anything that gives us success.”

France has been giving military assistance to Burkina Faso during its six-year conflict with armed groups linked to Islamic State and al-Qaida.

Earlier this month, the leader of neighboring Mali, Colonel Assimi Goita, welcomed mercenaries into the country from the Russian private security company Wagner, which has close links to the Kremlin.

The mercenaries took over a military base in Timbuktu that was vacated by French troops in December.

Demonstrators in Burkina Faso carried pictures of Goita at this week’s demonstration and on Jan. 22, held a march in solidarity with Mali. Police broke up the gathering using flash bombs and tear gas.

Analysts say in recent months, there has been growing anti-French sentiment and a pivot toward Russia.

Analysts say Mali is using Russian involvement as a bargaining chip after the West African bloc ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) sanctioned the country for refusing to hold democratic elections within the next five years.

“The Malian military junta is trying to mobilize national feeling, if you like,” said Paul Melly, an analyst with London-based think tank Chatham House. “It seems to have brought the Russians in or sought to bring the Russians in as a sort of tool of leverage. It’s not entirely clear how much practical military impact it could actually bring.”

The Russian Embassy in Burkina Faso and the military junta both declined to give VOA an interview.

Bernard Bermouga, a Burkinabe political commentator, is pragmatic about the situation.

“Whether Burkina Faso aligns with France, Russia or another country,” Bermouga said, “it’s not out of generosity. It’s not free. They’ll want something in return. What is needed is someone who can help Burkina Faso get out of the situation in which it finds itself.”

Activist Francois Beogo from Burkina Faso, who attended the demonstration, said the French must let them work things out on their own. The demonstrators are not against France, he said, but France must manage their affairs and allow Burkinabe to manage theirs. Without France, he said, soldiers will have peace of mind and be able to reflect on how to organize and free the people.

Meanwhile, the Russian organization that trains troops in the Central African Republic has offered military support to Burkina Faso. It remains to be seen if Burkina Faso’s new de facto leader, Paul-Henri Damiba, will take up the offer.

 
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A Swedish-Kenyan company, Opibus, has introduced the first African-designed and manufactured electric bus in Kenya with the aim of bringing clean energy to public transportation. Opibus, Kenya’s first company to make electric motorcycles, plans to launch the bus commercially in a few months and bring it to markets across Africa by 2023.

As other vehicles jostle for space while belching clouds of dark smoke in the streets of Nairobi, Benjamin Maina is driving a unique bus; one that is fully electric.

“I feel privileged driving this vehicle,” said Maina. “It is also very amazing when you are driving this vehicle compared to the fossil fuel vehicles, considering there is a lot of vibration on fossil fuel vehicles and also a lot of noise. But with this vehicle, it’s quite silent and very sleek.”

Public transport in Kenya and across the African continent is largely run informally, and emissions standards are rarely enforced, making the vehicles highly pollutive as Jane Akumu, a Sustainable Mobility expert at the U.N. Environment Program explains.

“If you look at the cities, the heavy-duty vehicles which are buses and trucks, that’s the bulk of the pollution,” said Akumu. “So, they are a big contributor to pollution. But as I said, they are also an opportunity. Because how do we shift to cleaner modes? Because we need mass transport to be sustainable to make cities more sustainable.”

The introduction of electric buses into the African market by Opibus is aimed at remedying the situation. Albin Wilson is the chief of strategy and marketing at Opibus.

“This electric bus is really (an) important first step in the transition from fossil fuel vehicles to electric clean mobility,” said Wilson. “And I think we are really showing precedence being the first movers in this market with a bus that is even locally developed.”

Christopher Maina is a resident of Nairobi. VOA asked him about his experience as a passenger riding on an electric bus.

“This ride today is one of its own, having ridden on an electric vehicle,” said Maina. “It’s just cool, no noises like the combustion engines, there are no smells like the combustion engines. So, it’s just cool and awesome to be in this vehicle.”

Africa’s electric car market, currently in its infancy, presents a huge opportunity for investment and the creation of green jobs, say experts. Here again is Jane Akumu.

“When you look at our source of electricity, it is renewable,” said Akumu. “For example, in Ethiopia it is almost 100% renewable energy: hydro and such. If you look at Kenya it is over 90%. So, we have energy. We don’t have to import fossil fuel; petrol, diesel and all that. So, we have the energy here, then this is also very good opportunity for jobs, green jobs.”

Benjamin Maina notes one other benefit of his electric bus – lower costs for maintenance and fuel.  It means more money in his pocket, he says, and a higher standard of living. 
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China is watching with growing interest as Russia and the West face off over Ukraine. With more than 100-thousand Russian troops deployed on the Ukrainian border, there is growing concern among Western nations that the Kremlin is planning an imminent invasion. Moscow has denied any such plans.

Western nations have threatened unprecedented economic sanctions against Moscow if it invades Ukraine. If cut off by the West, could Russia look east, to China, for help? Professor Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, says Beijing is ready to step in.

“China under Xi Jinping has a clear policy of making the world safe for autocrats. And China under Xi Jinping also believes itself to be a leading socialist country now and it has a soft spot for former socialist countries. So, Russia under (President Vladimir) Putin ticks two boxes that make Russia very deserving of Chinese support.”

WATCH: China Weighs Risks, Rewards of US-Russia Standoff Over Ukraine

“The policy I think China is likely to take is to do whatever they can to help the Russians to face up to the economic sanctions that the U.S. and Europeans may impose on Russia. (However) I think economic links between Russia and China are not really strong enough to replace any break of economic links between Russia and Europe,” Tsang told VOA.

Moscow-Beijing coordination

Beijing is engaged in its own territorial disputes in Asia and has offered political support for Moscow.

“This foreign policy coordination will definitely increase,” says analyst Dmitry Suslov of Russia’s National Research University in Moscow. “Because from the Russian perspective, intensification of the military partnership between Russia and China is precisely one of the major pains which Russia can inflict to the United States and NATO in order to compel them to compromise,” Suslov said at a recent panel discussion on Ukraine, organized by the London-based policy group Chatham House.

NATO states are mulling increased troop deployments in eastern European member states to deter Russia. The United States has put further 8,500 troops on alert for possible deployment to Europe.

Taiwan

China is closely watching NATO and America’s response to any Russian invasion, says security analyst Julie Norman of University College London. “Even though there’s these troop deployments to Eastern European states, no states are talking about directly sending troops into Ukraine itself to defend it. And of course, China’s taking note of that, with some of their own territorial disputes in their own areas,” Norman told VOA.

Taiwan is China’s biggest territorial dispute — and there is a risk of miscalculation as Beijing watches events unfold in Ukraine, says Steve Tsang.

“The Chinese seeing the Americans and the Europeans talking big but not doing very much about it… would embolden them over Taiwan and potentially miscalculate what the American response to a crisis over Taiwan might be.”

China’s Belt and Road

Despite their mutual rivalry with the United States, China’s and Russia’s interests don’t always align. China has also invested billions of dollars in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which could be at risk in the event of any conflict.

Beijing’s multitrillion-dollar “Belt and Road” initiative’ cuts through several former Soviet bloc states, including Ukraine. A direct rail and ferry freight link opened in 2016, linking China with Illichivsk port on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast via Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, bypassing Russia. 

Ukraine is a major exporter of grains to China. By 2025, Beijing and Kyiv aim to increase bilateral trade by 50 percent, to $20 billion per year. China has also funded infrastructure projects, including a new metro line for Kyiv. If Russia invades Ukraine, could Beijing’s investments in the region be at risk? For now, China is showing little concern, says Tsang.

“The more immediate impact on the Belt and Road initiative would in fact be the Russian military intervention in Kazakhstan. And the Chinese government have actually shown that they are quite relaxed and comfortable with that. To them, it’s more important to support authoritarian states and autocrats to stay in power than for some of them to be closer to Russia than to China, at the moment. Over the longer term, things may change,” Tsang said.

In the short term, analysts say, China is keen to keep a lid on the simmering tensions for at least the next few weeks, as it prepares to host the Winter Olympics starting February 4.
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