Month: October 2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning of a new arms race if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with his threat to pull out of a key arms control agreement. 

After talks in Moscow with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Putin said Russia would respond “in kind” if the U.S. deployed intermediate-range missiles in Europe. 

“If they will deliver them to Europe, naturally our response will have to mirror this,” Putin said, adding that the Russian response would be “very quick and effective.” 

He also cautioned that European countries agreeing to host U.S. missiles would put themselves at risk of a Russian attack. 

Meeting in November?

But Putin said he wanted to discuss the issue with Trump if the two meet in Paris next month. Both will be attending ceremonies marking the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I. 

“I don’t understand why we should put Europe in such a grave danger. I see no reason for that. … We are ready to work with our American partners without any hysterics,” Putin said. 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday blamed Russia for violating the arms control treaty Trump wants to abandon. But he said he did not foresee a nuclear arms buildup in Europe. 

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987. It bans the United States and Russia from building, testing and stockpiling ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500 to 5,000 kilometers (310 to 3,100 miles). 

Trump has accused Russia of violating the treaty by deploying land-based cruise missiles that pose a threat to NATO. 

Russia denies violating the INF pact and says it is U.S. missile defense systems in Europe and other unprovoked steps that are in violation. 

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, who met with Putin on Tuesday in Moscow, called Russian violations of the treaty “long and deep.” 

“The threat is not America’s INF withdrawal. … The threat is Russian missiles already deployed,” Bolton said.  “The American position is that Russia is in violation. Russia’s position is that they are not in violation. So, one has to ask how to ask the Russians to come back into compliance with something that they don’t think they are violating.” 

But Bolton has implied that the INF deal with Russia might have run its course. He believes bilateral Cold War treaties may not apply to the current global security environment when other nations, including China, Iran and North Korea, have also developed missiles.
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Four U.S. soldiers were injured in a major North Atlantic Treaty Organization exercise in Norway in an accident involving four vehicles Tuesday, the U.S. military said.

One soldier was released shortly after being hospitalized, and the three others are under observation in stable condition, the U.S. Joint Information Center said in a statement.

The soldiers were in trucks delivering cargo to Kongens Gruve, Norway, in support of Trident Juncture 18, the biggest NATO exercise in recent years, two days ahead of the start date.

Trident Juncture 18 will involve around 50,000 personnel from NATO Allies and partner countries, about 250 aircraft, 65 vessels and up to 10,000 vehicles. It will take place from Oct. 25 to Nov. 7 in central and eastern Norway, the surrounding areas of the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea, including Iceland and the airspace of Finland and Sweden.

“The accident occurred when three vehicles collided and a fourth vehicle slid off the pavement and overturned while trying to avoid the three vehicles that had collided,” the information center said.

The vehicles and personnel in the accident were assigned to the U.S. Army’s 51st Composite Truck Company stationed in Baumholder, Germany.

The U.S. military is working with Norwegian authorities to investigate the accident.
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A prominent nuclear weapons expert says White House threats to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty are diplomatically shortsighted, potentially dangerous and politically risky for President Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections.

Calling the landmark 1987 missile treaty a key part of European and international security for over 30 years, Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said while there have been concerns about Russia’s compliance with the agreement, U.S. withdrawal would shift blame for the collapse of the treaty from Moscow, “where it belongs,” to Washington.

His comments came shortly after U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top Kremlin officials in Moscow.

“The other reason why this is problematic is that the United States and Russia have not exhausted the diplomatic options to resolve this conflict,” Kimball said, pointing out that Bolton’s Moscow visit is only the third U.S.-Russia meeting under the current administration.

“One of the available options that should be tried is mutual transparency visits by Russian experts to U.S. missile interceptor sites in Romania, and U.S. technical expert inspections of the 9M729 missiles that the U.S. is concerned about in Russia,” Kimball said.

U.S. officials, including Trump, accuse Russia of ground-launching an 9M729 cruise missile in violation of the treaty in 2014, a charge long denied by Russia, which says U.S. missile defense systems in Europe violate the agreement.

“Both sides are going to have to try harder to work out a diplomatic solution,” Kimball added. “I think if the two sides have the necessary political will, it’s possible, and the INF treaties can be preserved.”

Bolton, who said he was in Moscow as part of Trump’s commitment to improve security cooperation with Russia, had earlier hinted the arms control pact with Russia is outdated. 

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the INF accord in 1987, which bans the United States and Russia from building, testing and stockpiling ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range from 500 to 5,000 kilometers (310-3,100 miles).

“Because intermediate-range missiles have a very short flight time to their targets, they’re especially destabilizing,” Kimball told VOA’s Russian Service. “Because there’s very little warning time, it can lead to instability in a crisis, which is why Reagan and Gorbachev eliminated them in the 1980s.”

Addressing reporters in Moscow, Bolton said he believes Cold War-era bilateral treaties are no longer relevant because now other countries are also building missiles. 

At recent political campaign rally in Nevada, Trump said the United States would have to start developing new weapons if Russia and China, which is not part of the INF treaty, do. He then proposed having China join the treaty, an idea that Kimball calls highly unlikely.

The U.S. and Russia, said Kimball, “would love to have China in this INF agreement.”

“Why? Because about two-thirds of China’s nuclear arsenal is deployed on short, medium, or intermediate-range missiles,” Kimball said. “That’s because of geography, because of the way China deploys its relatively small nuclear arsenal. So, that would be a win for the U.S. and Russia, and a loss for China.”

Asked if he expects the administration to withdraw formally, Kimball was skeptical.

“The past few weeks, the United States government has been discussing what to do with respect to the treaty. I think that Bolton, if he’s smart, he would have gone to Moscow to say, ‘Look, we’re not going to let this problem linger for too much longer. We may withdraw from this treaty if you, Russia, don’t take the following steps,'” Kimball said. “But I think Donald Trump — with his penchant for tough rhetoric — may have jumped the gun a little bit when he said on Saturday that we will terminate the INF treaty.”

In Russia, state media such as RIA Novosti cited anonymous sources offering similar interpretations of Trump’s rhetoric, which they dismissed as midterm election rally grandstanding, where politicians can score political points for appearing tough on Russia.

Although European leaders have supported U.S. efforts to bring Russia into compliance with the treaty and called on the Russian government for greater technical transparency with its arsenal, they have largely resisted U.S. withdrawal.

“The INF contributed to the end of the Cold War and constitutes a pillar of European security architecture since it entered into force 30 years ago,” said a spokesperson for the EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, in a prepared statement issued Monday.

“Thanks to the INF treaty, almost 3,000 missiles with nuclear and conventional warheads have been removed and verifiably destroyed,” the statement said. “The world doesn’t need a new arms race that would benefit no one and on the contrary would bring even more instability.”

French President Emmanuel Macron raised the issue with Trump by phone the morning after the Nevada rally to “underline the importance of this treaty, especially with regards to European security,” according to a statement by the French ministry that called “on all the parties to avoid any hasty unilateral decisions, which would be regrettable.”

Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, hailed Trump’s proposed withdrawal as “the right move.”

“Russia has been cheating on this treaty for years, and there was no hope of getting Moscow to return to compliance,” he said in an Atlantic Council blog post. “It doesn’t make sense for the United States to be unilaterally constrained by limits that don’t affect any other country.”

A Putin spokesman said a U.S. pullout from the INF treaty would make the world a more dangerous place, and that Russia would have to take security countermeasures to “restore balance.”

Addressing reporters in Moscow, Bolton said he discussed Russian meddling in U.S. elections with Putin, calling it counterproductive for Russia. He also said Trump looked forward to meeting Putin in Paris on Nov. 11.

This story originated in VOA’s Russian Service. 
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The Trump administration appears determined to pull out of a key 1987 arms control agreement with Russia, in the wake of talks Tuesday between national security adviser John Bolton and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by deploying missiles in Europe.

Bolton called Russian violations “long and deep.”

“The threat is is not America’s INF withdrawal from the treaty. The threat is Russian missiles already deployed,” Bolton said. “The American position is that Russia is in violation. Russia’s position is that they are not in violation. So, one has to ask how to ask the Russians to come back into compliance with something that don’t think they are violating.”

Bolton told reporters after the talks that formal notice of a withdrawal would be filed “in due course.”

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the INF Treaty in 1987. It bans the United States and Russia from building, testing and stockpiling ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range 500 to 5,000 kilometers.

U.S. officials going back to the Obama administration have accused Russia of deliberately deploying a land-based cruise missile to pose a threat to NATO.

Trump said the United States would have to start developing new weapons if Russia and China — which is not part of the INF Treaty — did.

Bilateral treaties outdated?

Bolton hinted the INF deal with Russia might have run its course and that bilateral Cold War treaties might not apply to the current global security environment when other nations, including China, Iran and North Korea, have also developed missiles.

Russia denies violating the INF pact and says it is U.S. missile defense systems in Europe and other unprovoked steps that are in violation.

“On the coat of arms of the United States, there’s an eagle holding 13 arrows in one talon and an olive branch in the other,” Putin reminded Bolton. “My question is whether your eagle has gobbled up all the olives, leaving only the arrows.”

Bolton replied by saying he did not bring any more olives.

In more serious remarks, a Kremlin spokesman said a U.S. pullout from the INF Treaty would make the world a more dangerous place, and Russia would have to take security countermeasures to “restore balance.”

But both sides said Tuesday there was a need for dialogue and work on areas of mutual concern.

Bolton also said Tuesday that plans were being made for Trump and Putin to meet in Paris next month. Both leaders will be in France to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.

Previous summit

The last meeting between Trump and Putin in Helsinki in July turned out to be a bit of a domestic disaster for Trump. At a post-summit joint news conference, he appeared to accept Putin’s denials of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election, contrary to the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies.

Bolton said he also talked about Russian interference in the U.S. elections. He said such efforts do not affect the outcome of the vote and only create distrust between the U.S. and Russia. 

Bolton also laid three separate bouquets of flowers during his visit to Moscow — the traditional wreath at the World War II Memorial by the Kremlin wall; flowers to remember the victims of last week’s massacre of college students at the Black Sea port of Kerch; and flowers at the site near the Kremlin where Russian opposition leader and Putin critic Boris Nemtsov was gunned down in 2015. 
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The executive director of a federal control board overseeing Puerto Rico’s finances said Monday that the island is likely to receive $20 billion more than initially estimated in federal relief as it rebuilds from Hurricane Maria.

Overall, Puerto Rico is slated to receive $82 billion, Natalie Jaresko said. She said the funds will help the struggling economy rebound but warned that gains will be short-lived unless there are tax and labor reforms.

“It continues to be absolutely critical,” she said of the reforms, which she did not specify. “We may have lost a window of opportunity.”

Jaresko met with reporters to outline a new fiscal plan for the U.S. territory, which has been in a recession for 12 years and is trying to restructure part of its more than $70 billion in public debt.

New plan expected to get OK

The board is scheduled to approve the new plan Tuesday, although it’s unclear whether the island’s government supports it. 

Christian Sobrino, the government’s representative on the board, said officials are reviewing a draft of the plan and will announce their position during Tuesday’s public hearing. Government officials have previously rejected portions of the original plan.

“This administration has faced a fiscal crisis and two hurricanes without precedent,” Sobrino said. “The actions our government has taken reflect an abundance of will to do what is necessary to transform Puerto Rico. Labeling policy differences as a lack of political will is not prudent.”

Economic blueprint

The revised five-year fiscal plan, which serves as an economic blueprint for the island, anticipates a 6 percent increase in revenues and a 7 percent decrease in expenditures for this fiscal year.

Jaresko said Puerto Rico also could see a $17 billion surplus if it reaches a settlement with those who bought sales tax bonds issued by the local government. The agreement with creditors finalized last week represents nearly 24 percent of the island’s debt, and officials expect the deal to be presented next month to a judge overseeing a bankruptcy-like process for Puerto Rico agencies.

Suggested changes

The fiscal plan does not contain any overhauls to Puerto Rico’s tax and labor systems, which Jaresko said are needed to help the economy rebound. She said the government has to improve the ease of doing business on the island as well as create a more competitive labor market and transition employees from the informal economy to the formal one.

Puerto Rico legislators are still debating a tax reform bill that the board has said does not meet the need for a broader, more progressive tax regime. Jaresko also warned the island would face long term deficits if the local government does not make the economy more competitive.

“To change long term, more hard work remains,” she said.
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The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Monday said it had ordered Transdev North America to immediately stop transporting schoolchildren in Florida in a driverless shuttle as the testing could be putting them at “inappropriate” risk.

The auto safety agency known as NHTSA said in an order issued late Friday that Transdev’s use of its EZ10 Generation II driverless shuttle in the Babcock Ranch community in southwest Florida was “unlawful and in violation of the company’s temporary importation authorization.”

“Innovation must not come at the risk of public safety,” said Deputy NHTSA Administrator Heidi King in a statement.

“Using a non-compliant test vehicle to transport children is irresponsible, inappropriate, and in direct violation of the terms of Transdev’s approved test project.”

In March, NHTSA granted Transdev permission to temporarily import the driverless shuttle for testing and demonstration purposes, but not as a school bus.

The agency said the company had agreed to halt the tests. A spokeswoman for Transdev did not respond to several requests for comment Monday.

Transdev North America is a unit of Transdev, which is controlled by France state-owned investment fund Caisse des Depots et Consignations.

The company in August issued a news release saying it would “operate school shuttle service starting this fall with an autonomous vehicle, the first in the world.”

Transdev said the 12-person shuttle bus would operate from a designated pickup area with a safety attendant on board, would travel at a top speed of 8 miles per hour (13 kph), with the potential to reach speeds of 30 mph (48 kph) once additional infrastructure was completed.

There are numerous low-speed self-driving shuttles being tested in cities around the United States with many others planned.

NHTSA previously said it was moving ahead with plans to revise safety rules that bar fully self-driving cars from the roads without equipment such as steering wheels, pedals and mirrors as the agency works to advance driverless vehicles. The agency has said it opposes proposals to require ‘pre-approving’ self-driving technologies before they are tested.

NHTSA told Transdev that failure to take appropriate action could result in fines, the voiding of the temporary importation authorization or the exportation of the vehicle.

Earlier this month, French utility Veolia agreed to sell its 30 percent stake in Transdev to Germany’s Rethmann Group.
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A Russian woman accused by the U.S. of helping oversee a social media effort to influence the 2018 U.S. midterm elections mocked the accusations Monday, saying that they made her feel proud.

Justice Department prosecutors alleged Friday that Elena Khusyaynova helped manage the finances of the same social media troll farm that was indicted earlier this year by special counsel Robert Mueller. The troll farm, the Internet Research Agency, is one of a web of companies allegedly controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman with reported ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Khusyaynova responded Monday in a video on the internet news site Federal News Agency, reportedly also linked to Prigozhin. She said she was bewildered by the allegations that she could have influenced the U.S. elections even though she is just a simple bookkeeper who doesn’t speak English.

Justice Department prosecutors claimed that Khusyaynova, of St. Petersburg, ran the finances for a hidden but powerful Russian social media effort aimed at spreading distrust for American political candidates and causing divisions on hot-button social issues like immigration and gun control. It marked the first federal case alleging foreign interference in the 2018 midterm elections.

“I was surprised and shocked, but then my heart filled with pride,” Khusyaynova said. “It turns out that a simple Russian woman could help citizens of a superpower elect their president. Dear people of the world! Let’s all help the American people elect such politicians who would behave in a humane way and lead our planet to peace and goodness. Let’s all wish America to become a great and peaceful country again!”
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The killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul is unlikely to halt Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s rise to power, but could cause irreparable harm to relations with Western governments and businesses, potentially endangering his ambitious reform plans.

International outrage over Khashoggi’s Oct. 2 slaying at the hands of Saudi officials, under still-disputed circumstances, has marked the greatest crisis in the 33-year-old’s rapid rise, already tarnished by a catastrophic war in Yemen and a sweeping roundup of Saudi businessmen and activists.

The prince had hoped to galvanize world support for his efforts to revamp the country’s oil-dependent economy, but now the monarchy faces possible sanctions over the killing. Saudi Arabia has threatened to retaliate against any punitive action, but analysts say that wielding its main weapon — oil production — could backfire, putting the prince’s economic goals even further out of reach.

“The issue now is how Western governments coordinate a response and to what extent they wish to escalate this in a coordinated fashion,” said Michael Stephens, a senior research fellow who focuses on the Mideast at London’s Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies.

“Would financial sanctions be considered sufficient as to have sent a message to Saudi Arabia that this will never happen again?” Stephens added. “Some may feel this is inadequate, while others, like the Americans, may feel this is going too far.”

Senior aides close to the prince have been fired over Khashoggi’s killing, and 18 suspects have been arrested. But the prince himself, protected by his 82-year-old father, King Salman, has been tapped to lead a panel to reform the kingdom’s intelligence services, a sign he will remain next in line to the throne.

The king has the authority to change the line of succession — as he did when he appointed his son crown prince in the first place, upending the previous royal consensus.

But any direct challenge to Prince Mohammed’s succession “may be destabilizing for the kingdom as a whole,” said Cinzia Bianco, a London-based analyst for Gulf State Analytics. “Being young and being so close to his father, there is a chance that his behavior can be constrained with the influence of his father and other actors around the world,” Bianco said.

That only holds as long as King Salman remains in power. If Prince Mohammed ascends the throne, he could be in power for decades, longer than any other royal since the country’s founding in 1932, including its first monarch, King Abdul-Aziz Al Saud.

The firing and arrests announced by the kingdom appear to be at least an acknowledgement by the royal family of how serious the crisis has become.

“While it might be too early to evaluate the reaction of the international community, these moves might be read as a serious initial signal that the Saudi leadership is course correcting,” wrote Ayham Kamel, the head of Mideast and North Africa research at the Eurasia Group.

“Despite speculation that the crisis spells the end of Mohammad bin Salman, the recent announcements prove that the king still believes that the current line of succession is suitable.”

The Saudis’ greatest concern is the United States, a crucial military ally against archrival Iran and a key source of the kind of foreign investment they will need to reform the economy. A strong American response could encourage other Western countries to follow suit, further amplifying the crisis.

President Donald Trump has thus far sent mixed signals, vowing “severe punishment” over the death of the Washington Post columnist but saying he doesn’t want to imperil American arms sales to the kingdom.

Trump chose Saudi Arabia as his first overseas trip as president, and his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner has developed close ties with Prince Mohammed, apparently seeing him as an ally in advancing his yet-to-be-released peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians.

But even if the Saudis keep Trump on their side, they could face a reckoning from the U.S. Congress, where Republicans and Democrats alike have expressed outrage over the killing. Some have suggested using the 2016 Global Magnitsky Act, which makes it possible to impose entry bans and targeted sanctions on individuals for committing human rights violations or acts of significant corruption.

Saudi Arabia last week threatened “greater action” if faced with sanctions. While no official has explained what that would entail, the general manager of a Saudi-owned satellite news channel suggested it could include weaponizing the kingdom’s oil production.

Forty-five years ago, Saudi Arabia joined other OPEC nations in an oil embargo over the 1973 Mideast war in retaliation for American military support for Israel. Gas prices soared, straining the U.S. economy.

But it’s unclear whether such a move would work in today’s economy. Saudi Arabia has been trying to claw back global market share, especially as Iran faces new U.S. oil sanctions beginning in November. Slashing oil exports would drain revenues needed for Prince Mohammed’s plans to diversify the economy, while a spike in oil prices could revive the U.S. shale industry and lead other countries to boost production.

“The Saudis have been very helpful by accelerating oil production, especially as sanctions on Iran ramp up,” said Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “It would be very foolish of Saudi Arabia to forfeit the trust of the oil market earned over decades by injecting politics into their oil policy.”
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U.S. lawmakers of both political parties remain incredulous of Saudi Arabia’s explanation for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who disappeared at the kingdom’s consulate in Turkey nearly three weeks ago. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports from Washington.
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